The UK government has drawn up contingency plans for potential food shortages this summer if the conflict with Iran continues, according to a leaked document. The plans, codenamed 'Exercise Turnstone', were prepared by the emergency committee Cobra and involve No 10, the Treasury, and the Ministry of Defence.
The 'reasonable worst-case scenario' assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, leading to a sharp drop in carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies. CO2 levels could fall to just 18% of current levels, due to a mechanical fault at a key UK plant and reduced ammonia and fertiliser production across Europe, which generates CO2 as a by-product.
Farming and hospitality would be the worst-hit industries, as CO2 is used to prolong the shelf life of foods like salad, packaged meats, and baked goods. It is also essential for slaughtering pigs and chickens, and for carbonating drinks, potentially disrupting the Fifa World Cup in June. Breweries could face shortages.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle said the public should be 'reassured' by the planning, noting that the prime minister has been involved from the start. He highlighted the reversal of the Ensus bioethanol plant mothballing in Teesside to secure CO2 supplies, and insisted that current CO2 supplies are 'not a concern'.
Karen Betts of the Food and Drink Federation said consumers should not worry about shortages, though food inflation could reach 9% by December. She noted that manufacturers are working to protect consumers from price rises, but costs are rising due to energy, freight, and commodity prices.
