President Donald Trump’s promise that tax refunds would increase by “$1,000 or more” in 2026 appears to be falling short for most Americans, with new data showing the average refund is only $351 higher than last year. The White House had projected the increase would be driven by provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill, including no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security.
According to Internal Revenue Service data from March 27, the average refund through that date was $351 higher than the same period in 2025. While the average typically rises throughout the tax year, experts say the $1,000 boost will largely benefit the wealthiest taxpayers.
The Center for American Progress, a nonpartisan policy institute, found that fewer than half of taxpayers earning under $100,000 will receive an increased refund, with an average rise of just $208. In contrast, nearly all those making over $200,000 will see an increase averaging more than $2,000.
Low-income workers will see minimal gains: those earning less than $20,000 will average just $13 more, while those earning $20,000-$50,000 will get $89 more. Only workers earning at least $100,000 will see an average refund close to or exceeding $1,000.
The Tax Foundation, another nonpartisan group, estimates the average refund across all Americans will rise by $748, not the $1,000 promised. Wealthy taxpayers often file extensions due to complex returns, so their larger refunds later in the year may push the overall average higher, but the $1,000 figure remains out of reach for most.
