The Conservative Party conference has become a stage for internal warfare and existential dread, as Reform UK emerges as the spectre threatening to deliver what experts are calling "electoral annihilation" to the Tories.
The Boris Johnson Shadow Looms Large
Despite his absence from frontline politics, Boris Johnson's presence dominates the conference halls. His particular brand of populism, now being channelled by Reform UK, continues to haunt his former party. The so-called "Boriswave" that once delivered an 80-seat majority has now become a destructive force turning against the Conservatives.
Reform UK: The Party Pooper
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has positioned itself as the true heir to Johnson's Brexit coalition, successfully peeling away traditional Tory voters. Current polling suggests Reform could cost the Conservatives up to 100 seats by splitting the right-wing vote, creating a pathway for a Labour landslide of historic proportions.
Sunak's Impossible Balancing Act
Rishi Sunak finds himself trapped between the party's moderate wing demanding pragmatic centrism and the right flank still enthralled by Johnson's populist appeal. This internal conflict has left the conference atmosphere more reminiscent of a wake than a rally, with MPs openly speculating about their political mortality.
Key Factors Driving Tory Decline
- Reform UK's successful capture of the Brexit nostalgia vote
- Deep ideological divisions over immigration and net zero policies
- The lingering damage from Partygate and other scandals
- Economic stagnation undermining the Tory reputation for competence
A Party Facing Extinction-Level Event
Senior Conservatives privately admit they're facing their worst electoral defeat since 1997, with some projections suggesting they could be reduced to fewer than 100 seats. The conference has become less about policy announcements and more about managing expectations for the coming catastrophe.
The question hanging over Manchester isn't whether the Conservatives will lose, but whether they can survive as a viable political force in their current form. The Boris Johnson legacy, once their greatest asset, has become the poison threatening to deliver the final blow.
