Nigel Farage has launched what is being described as his most significant attack on the Conservative Party to date, urging voters not to trust leader Kemi Badenoch and warning that the Tories oversaw tax rises, spiralling welfare spending and net zero carbon emission rules. The Reform UK leader’s remarks come as the Conservatives languish at around 18% in some opinion polls, their worst showing in modern history.
According to the Financial Times, Farage has been telling donors that a deal or merger with the Tories before the next general election is “inevitable”, despite staunch denials from both sides. One donor quoted Farage describing an agreement as unavoidable, a claim that has been met with scepticism by Conservative figures.
The narrative of the Tories’ demise has been gaining traction since the local elections in May, when Reform made significant gains. Former Conservative Cabinet minister Justine Greening wrote in the Guardian that the party was “as dead as Monty Python’s famous parrot”, decrying what she called a strategy of trying to out-Reform Reform. However, some analysts argue that such claims may be premature.
Giles Dilnot, editor of ConservativeHome, argues that Labour and Reform have made a “devil’s pact” to treat each other as the main opponents, ignoring the Tories. He contends that the Conservative Party has changed since 2024 and is not the same as Labour or Reform, despite perceptions. “The Tories are not in a good position. But they are so definitely not dead,” Dilnot said.
Peter Walker, senior political correspondent for the Guardian, notes that the party is in “big, big trouble” with polling showing unprecedented fragmentation among five parties. However, he adds that some Conservative MPs remain bullish, even as others confess the party is in a “death spiral”. The coming months will test whether the Tories can recover or if the predictions of their demise will become self-fulfilling.
