Starmer Faces Critical Juncture After Greens' Byelection Victory in Gorton and Denton
Keir Starmer convened a meeting of Labour party members in London on February 27, 2026, just one day after the Greens secured a stunning victory in the Gorton and Denton byelection. This event has plunged Labour into a period of intense introspection, as the party grapples with a significant loss of support to left-wing rivals.
A Symptomatic Exchange Reveals Deeper Issues
In a revealing anecdote, Tom Baldwin, author of Keir Starmer, The Biography, recounts a conversation with a Labour strategist in a crowded bar months earlier. When Baldwin sought advice on explaining Britain's military training of Israeli officers to his son, the strategist's blunt response was to tell him to fuck off. This exchange, Baldwin argues, epitomises a dismissive attitude towards voters concerned with issues like Gaza, climate change, and asylum seekers—a faction long taken for granted by Labour.
For much of Starmer's six-year leadership, advisers have sidelined these viewpoints, fearing they might alienate older, whiter, and more traditionally working-class voters deemed crucial for electoral success. However, the Gorton and Denton result, where Labour finished a disastrous third, with more defectors choosing the Greens over Reform, challenges this strategy head-on.
Byelection Fallout and Broader Political Dynamics
The byelection outcome is not an isolated incident. It aligns with opinion polls showing Labour's support erosion to left-wing parties far exceeds losses to right-wing populists like Reform. Previous assumptions that progressive voters could be scared back into the Labour fold have been tested to destruction, as seen in the Caerphilly byelection last autumn, where Plaid Cymru outpolled Labour for the first time.
In Gorton and Denton, campaigners reported genuine anger over tactics perceived as insulting, such as attacks on Greens' drugs policies with outlandish claims about turning playgrounds into crack dens. One minister criticised the party's campaign organisation for being hard-wired into rightwing tropes, losing touch with Labour's electoral base.
Starmer's Precarious Position and Internal Challenges
Despite the despair, Starmer has been largely immunised from an immediate leadership challenge due to recent party unity when media speculation peaked. Attention may shift to global crises, like potential US military strikes in Iran, highlighting Starmer's relative sure-footedness on the international stage compared to rivals like Zack Polanski or Nigel Farage.
Upcoming events, such as Rachel Reeves' spring statement with improving economic indicators, offer some respite. However, threats to Starmer's leadership persist, with many assuming he has only bought breathing space until May's elections in Scotland, Wales, and English regions. By then, he must develop a positive case for staying on.
Starmer is hampered by toxic office politics in No 10 and vacancies for key roles like chief of staff and communications director, unlikely to be filled before May. Yet, allies believe he is finally asserting his personality and values on a government where he has often seemed out of place, like a vegetarian managing a butcher's shop.
Recent Actions and Policy Shifts
In recent weeks, Starmer has acted with urgency, winning a battle with Elon Musk over AI-generated sexualised deepfakes and swiftly condemning Manchester United co-owner Jim Radcliffe for repugnant immigration remarks. After acknowledging errors in appointing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, Starmer has written to Labour MPs admitting the need to change an administration often perceived as remote and high-handed.
Aware of the danger of overcorrection, Starmer is unlikely to abandon policies on small boats crossings or asylum returns, which he believes are working. Instead, he has returned to his pragmatic centre-left roots, focusing on spreading opportunity and improving dignity in everyday lives. For instance, government proposals on special educational needs reform this week avoided Daily Mail-style rhetoric about overdiagnosis, instead highlighting inclusion in mainstream schools through a personal story about his late brother, Nick.
Looking Ahead: Redemption or Decline?
While defenders acknowledge that resilience alone is insufficient, they suggest there is still time for redemption if Starmer can overcome daunting obstacles. As one close associate noted, Starmer would not have been able to live with himself if forced out early without showing the country his true self. In an era of polarised multiparty politics, where hostility often prevails, many may deem these efforts too little, too late. Nonetheless, Starmer is determined to try, aiming to reshape his government to better reflect his core beliefs and reconnect with disillusioned voters.
