Keir Starmer is reportedly coming to terms with the end of his premiership, with sources suggesting he may leave No 10 within a month if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election. The prime minister is said to be 'demob defiant' rather than demob happy, resenting what he sees as a lack of appreciation for his 2024 election victory and handling of a difficult inheritance.
However, the knowledge that his time is limited appears to have liberated Starmer. In what observers describe as arguably his finest Commons moment, he turned on Nigel Farage over the Henry Nowak case, accusing the Reform leader of cynically exploiting a family tragedy. Starmer's genuine anger united the House against Farage, who looked embarrassed.
The mood in Downing Street has become 'fatalistic', with morale among staff reportedly shot. Cabinet ministers expect Burnham to take over without a contest, though some argue it would be healthier for other candidates to stand. Starmer's fighting talk of standing himself is seen as unlikely, especially if new polls show Burnham widening his lead.
A possible handover could come after the EU-UK summit on 13 July, before the Commons recess on 17 July. Starmer is scrambling for legacy policies, including a social media ban for under-16s, the Defence Investment Plan, and further EU reset steps. However, each faces problems: the ban is seen as illiberal, the Treasury has cut defence plans, and the EU may exploit his desperation.
If Burnham unexpectedly loses the by-election, Starmer might survive for another year, but few think he will lead Labour into the next election. Some suggest the best of his premiership may yet come as he fights for his legacy.
