Keir Starmer's Labour Party is facing a nationwide collapse, with traditional strongholds falling to Reform UK and nationalist parties, according to analysis by Rafael Behr. The local and devolved elections this week are expected to show Labour losing its northern English working-class base to Reform UK, while inner London seats go Green. The SNP remains the largest party at Holyrood, thwarting Labour's hopes in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru could become the largest party in the Senedd, ending decades of Labour dominance in Wales.
This fragmentation risks making Nigel Farage the face of the UK's fragile union, as Scottish and Welsh nationalism are further radicalised by Reform UK's tone. Northern Ireland and Scotland already have first ministers opposed to union with England, and Wales may join them if Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth forms the next government. Downing Street cannot dismiss these results as normal midterm turbulence, as Labour struggles to define its core voters.
The Conservatives are faring little better, with their base split along Brexit lines: Reform UK appeals to Leave voters, while the Liberal Democrats consolidate Remain areas. The two-party duopoly that defined 20th-century British politics has broken down, except in Westminster. Labour's first 'red wall' fell in Scotland years ago, and despite Starmer's 2024 landslide, Scottish Labour faces another term in opposition, weighed down by the national brand.
Welsh Labour's Eluned Morgan faces similar challenges, compounded by double incumbency. Under Tory prime ministers, blame could be deflected to Westminster, but Starmer's arrival removed that excuse. Plaid Cymru offers leftish Welsh voters a tool to punish Labour and block Faragism, though independence demand is not surging. A Plaid-led government could still cause systemic drift, making Welsh politics feel more remote from the UK, as has happened in Scotland.
