Nearly eight months after resigning from the cabinet over a tax dispute, Angela Rayner could be set for a return as part of a small-scale reshuffle by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Speculation has intensified that the former deputy prime minister may be brought back to steady the government amid poor election forecasts.
The timing of any reshuffle is believed to hinge on Labour's performance in next week's elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and councils across England. Analysts predict heavy losses, with one Conservative peer forecasting Labour could lose 1,850 council seats, potentially triggering a cabinet revolt.
Since her resignation last September over an underpayment of stamp duty, Rayner has walked a line between loyalty and interventionism. Some of her interventions have been seen as helpful, such as her compromise on the workers' rights bill, while others, like her recent criticism of immigration rule changes, have been viewed less favourably by Number 10.
The main obstacle to her return has been an ongoing HMRC investigation into the stamp duty underpayment. Allies believe the matter will be resolved soon, possibly before the elections. Starmer has previously said he would welcome Rayner back, and the two reportedly discussed the idea during a recent school visit.
However, it remains unclear whether Rayner would want to rejoin the government, which some see as a sinking ship. While she would not demand the deputy prime minister role again, currently held by David Lammy, she is unlikely to accept a non-job. Some MPs suggest she may be more valuable as a backbencher, connecting with voters in a way Starmer struggles to do.
