Orbán's Defeat: A Watershed Moment for Hungary and Europe
A vandalised poster of Viktor Orbán in Budapest on 13 April 2026 symbolises the dramatic shift in Hungarian politics. The election that Sunday, with a turnout of 79.5%—the highest since the Soviet Union's collapse—resulted in the fall of Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power. This event is truly historic, marking the end of an era defined by illiberalism, corruption, and hostility towards Ukraine.
The Scale of the Victory and Its Implications
For Ukraine and the European project, Orbán's defeat brings palpable relief. Despite support from Donald Trump and a gerrymandered electoral map, Orbán lost decisively, forcing an immediate concession. The strong mobilisation of youth voters delivered a clear mandate for change, sparking celebrations among liberal democracy enthusiasts as a "Budapest spring" emerges.
Why Rebuilding Will Take Time: Lessons from Poland
However, caution is warranted. As Poland's experience demonstrates, restoring rule of law is far more challenging than dismantling it. When Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition defeated Law and Justice (PiS) in 2023, euphoria followed, but over two years later, rule of law remains incomplete. PiS still holds significant power, including the presidency, highlighting the "Polish paradox" of respecting democratic principles while undoing illiberal systems.
The Daunting Task Ahead for Péter Magyar
In Hungary, Péter Magyar faces an even steeper climb. Orbán's 16-year tenure allowed him to embed illiberalism into the state's foundations, unlike PiS's eight-year experiment. Magyar inherits a "captured" state with loyalists entrenched in public structures and key sectors like media and universities controlled by a pro-Orbán oligarchy. With Hungary ranking 55th on the Democracy Index and inflation exceeding 50% since 2020, the country's condition is critical.
The Incomplete Nature of Orbán's Defeat
Orbán's fall was inevitable due to long-term power fatigue and unmet promises, but it remains incomplete. Rebuilding requires immense time and energy, and legal vulnerabilities seen in Poland will likely amplify in Hungary. Questions persist about how far Magyar, who holds a two-thirds majority to amend the constitution, will go in dismantling the system and whether the EU will maintain pressure for genuine reform.
The Resilience of Populist Movements
The "Trump factor" complicates matters, as populist movements can thrive post-defeat. At 62, Orbán may wait for Magyar's coalition to struggle with a broken economy, betting on voter frustration. As Orbán stated after conceding, "We never give up." This resilience is echoed in Italy, where Giorgia Meloni's failed judicial reform referendum shows populists can be checked but not easily dismissed.
Conclusion: A Victory with Ongoing Challenges
Sunday's election was a victory for democracy, but national populism is designed to outlast its creators. The Hungarian people have ended Orbán's reign, yet reclaiming their state has only begun. If Magyar's government fails to navigate legal traps, the old regime's ghost—and its allies in Washington and Moscow—could return. In populism's history, the first defeat is rarely the last, underscoring the need for vigilance and sustained effort.
