From Praise to Rebuke: The Unraveling of Meloni and Trump's Alliance
Six months ago, Italy's far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stood on a stage in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, where world leaders had gathered to discuss a Gaza peace deal. In front of her, former US President Donald Trump lavished praise on the assembled leaders, before singling out Meloni as a "beautiful young woman". Turning towards her, he added: "You don't mind being called beautiful, right? Because you are. Thank you very much for coming."
Meloni appeared uncomfortable but accepted the compliment. She had worked diligently to establish herself as a solid European ally for Trump, making a flying visit to his Mar-a-Lago country club in Florida and being the only European leader to attend his presidential inauguration. That relationship, rooted in shared nationalistic rhetoric, is now unraveling as rapidly as it formed.
A Sudden Turn: Trump's Criticism and Meloni's Response
In a recent interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Trump turned on Meloni, stating she "lacked courage" for failing to join the US-Israeli war on Iran. This rebuke came after Meloni described Trump's attack on Pope Leo—who has emerged as a vocal critic of the Iran war—as "unacceptable".
"She is the one who is unacceptable," Trump snapped, "because she doesn't care if Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow up Italy in two minutes if it had the chance." These remarks capped a challenging month for Meloni, whose government suffered a bruising setback in a March referendum on a judicial overhaul and whose cozy relations with Trump have become an increasing political liability in Italy, a country with a deeply rooted anti-war culture.
Political Calculations: Meloni's Need for Distance
Analysts suggest Meloni needed a way to restore her image and recuperate consensus, and Trump's feud with Pope Leo provided the ideal opportunity. "When you consider the moment in Sharm-el Sheikh, she wasn't pleased to receive that compliment—she understood how diminishing it was—but she accepted it," said Cecilia Sottilotta, an associate politics professor at the University for Foreigners in Perugia. "However, there comes a time when never standing up to your partner becomes a problem. So the Pope Leo row was welcome news for Meloni, because in Italy, people love their popes, and they hate wars... Meloni desperately needed an excuse to distance herself from Trump and this was a good one."
Meloni had begun to distance herself from Trump after strikes in Iran were launched in late February, albeit cautiously. In parliament, she strongly criticised the conflict while warning that Italy "cannot afford a regime of ayatollahs in possession of nuclear weapons" that could threaten the country and Europe. After the referendum defeat, she adopted a stronger approach by denying use of an airbase in Sicily for US military planes carrying weapons for the Iran war.
Balancing Act: Domestic and International Pressures
Her delicate balancing act was evident even in her defence of Pope Leo. Meloni said Trump's verbal attack against the pontiff—whom he described as "weak" and catering to the "radical left"—was "unacceptable". But this only occurred after she faced pressure from the opposition when she omitted to address the remarks in a social media post praising Leo for his role in "fostering the return of peace" as he departed on a trip to Africa.
"Her instinct right up until the very end was to walk the tightrope," said Sottilotta. "But this is a big crisis and at this point, you cannot afford but to take sides." The ousting of her far-right ally Viktor Orbán in Hungary's elections is also suspected to have influenced Meloni's reaction to Trump, especially after US Vice-President JD Vance travelled to Budapest in an effort to boost Orbán's chances. "Vance going to Orbán was like delivering the kiss of death," Sottilotta noted. "So when she saw that, she really understood."
Looking Ahead: Meloni's Pivot and the 2027 Elections
Now beginning to focus on general elections in 2027—which until the referendum were expected to strongly favour her ruling coalition—Meloni has initiated a tactful pivot. In a further sign of distancing herself from the war, Italy suspended a defence pact with Israel this week, previously a staunchly supported ally. Meloni also reiterated her government's backing of Ukraine during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Rome, pledging to help boost the country's defences against Russian attacks.
On Friday, she will join French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer—both repeated targets of Trump's wrath—for talks in Paris on securing the Strait of Hormuz. Although Meloni's Brothers of Italy party has lost some support in recent weeks, it maintains a lead in polls, as does Meloni's personal popularity rating, even if her leadership has lost its shine.
Domestic Challenges and Future Prospects
Unless the fragmented opposition produces a credible alternative to Meloni, the polls are likely to remain static. Her government is now expected to prioritise plans to pass an electoral law that could secure a comfortable win in the next elections. "I believe the coalition remains favoured, in the sense that it has a clear leader," said Lorenzo Pregliasco, a co-founder of YouTrend, a political analysis firm. "The opposition still needs to define the alternative."
Meloni's government has enjoyed a stable ride since coming to power in October 2022, largely due to its compact nature rather than achieving meaningful improvements in Italians' lives. "She's dealt with the Trump issue, which in the short term, was a tactful move," said Mattia Diletti, a politics professor at Sapienza University in Rome. "But unless she makes some spectacular changes [on the domestic front], she will decline. Italians don't care too much about international politics but they do care about the war in Iran and wider Middle East, because it's affecting their lives and the cost of living, so the sooner it stops, the better for Meloni."
