Liberal Leadership Crisis Reaches Breaking Point
The Liberal Party is facing an imminent leadership challenge as key moderates have confirmed they will back Andrew Hastie if he decides to challenge Sussan Ley in the final parliamentary sittings before year's end. What began as background grumbling has crystallised into a firm conviction among moderate MPs that Ley's leadership is finished, creating the most serious threat to her position since she took over earlier this year.
The Climate Policy Catalyst
The breaking point for moderates came with the chaotic handling of climate policy, particularly the abandonment of the formal 2050 net zero target and the renewed emphasis on coal as the Coalition's main energy source. The internal process was described as chaotic, with messaging that left the party claiming to believe in the spirit of the Paris agreement while visibly marching in the opposite direction.
Moderates have watched for years as colleagues lost once-safe Liberal seats in inner suburbs, with the party's primary vote stagnating or declining in areas where professional voters, younger families and women now see climate and integrity as threshold issues. The renewed talk of coal has added insult to injury, sending an unmistakable signal to metropolitan voters that the party prioritises internal climate sceptics over market realities of energy transition.
Moderates Make Calculated Choice
In a significant shift, moderate MPs have confirmed to The Daily Mail that they would support Hastie, a socially conservative former SAS officer, despite ideological differences. This represents a calculated political choice rather than a natural ideological alignment. As one moderate MP explained: "He just needs to bring his own conservative colleagues with him."
Another moderate was even more direct: "Ley didn't dance with those who brought her so we are moving on. Even if it's Hastie that's better than a leader that stands for nothing." A third added: "We have reached a point where radical change is necessary. Hastie isn't my cup of tea, but he can have his go and if he's right our polls will improve."
The moderates' conclusion is that Ley has failed the most basic test of leadership: choosing a direction and persuading the party to follow it. They believe she tried so hard to avoid offending the right that she effectively left the field to them, then found herself bound to a compromise she did not shape and cannot credibly defend.
Succession Arithmetic Shifts
The conversation about succession has fundamentally changed. For a long time, Angus Taylor was treated as the obvious next option - a senior figure from the right, an economic conservative supposedly capable of straddling internal divides. He narrowly lost the vote to Ley after the election defeat earlier this year, primarily because moderates backed her.
Now moderates want to rule a line under the leadership fights of generations past. They're prepared to give Hastie his chance now if he's prepared to 'put his money where his mouth is', as one moderate MP put it. They're willing to live with differences on social issues and environment if they believe he can impose discipline, provide clarity of purpose, and end the endless muddle on climate and energy.
The arithmetic, as described by those involved, is straightforward. With moderate support locked in at a critical mass, the only remaining question would be whether the right coalesces behind Hastie rather than Taylor or another figure. If they do, Ley is finished in a single ballot. If they don't, the instability simply festers and her position erodes more slowly.
A Test of Character
What's playing out is less a conventional leadership contest and more a test of character. The moderates have decided Ley has failed and are now inviting Andrew Hastie to take over. Hastie's public line so far has been loyalty to Ley and an insistence that he's not counting numbers.
However, once it's widely understood that he could win a ballot in the current climate, ongoing passivity starts to look less like principle and more like reluctance to take a risk. As one colleague framed it privately: if you truly believe the party has lost its way, and you're being invited to do something about it, what does it say about you if you refuse?
The timing of the final sitting period makes the situation particularly combustible. The last week of parliament provides a natural focal point when private doubts are usually translated into leadership action, or at least into firm positions about what should happen early in the new year.
Even if Hastie ultimately decides not to put his hand up before the summer recess, the deeper truth exposed by these conversations doesn't change. Once a significant chunk of moderates have mentally moved on from a leader, that leader is living on borrowed time if they don't have the right's backing - which Ley does not. The dominant view inside the party is now clear: she will not lead the Liberals to the next election.
