Amid a flurry of Westminster Christmas receptions, the political chatter has turned from festive cheer to frenzied speculation about the future of the Labour leadership, despite Sir Keir Starmer's firm intention to stay and fight.
The Briefing War: A Warning to Would-Be Challengers
Allies of the Prime Minister have engaged in what has been described as a somewhat cack-handed briefing operation concerning a rumoured coup plot by Health Secretary Wes Streeting. According to sources, this manoeuvre was not primarily aimed at Streeting himself, but was designed as a stark message to any potential challengers within the party. The core message is clear: Keir Starmer has no intention of stepping aside easily.
One cabinet minister drew a sharp contrast with the past, stating, "This is not like Hartlepool," referencing the byelection loss that nearly ended Starmer's tenure as opposition leader. "He was on the brink then because he was finding the job of being opposition leader hard, but this is different. He wants to stay as prime minister."
Why the Rumour Mill is Grinding
The speculation has taken root during a difficult period for the government, with Starmer's personal poll ratings at historic lows. Westminster insiders offer various theories for the rapid decline in morale: the Prime Minister's perceived aloofness from MPs, a harsh whipping system, and unforced errors like the winter fuel allowance controversy.
Some point to the assisted dying vote as a pivotal moment, giving backbench MPs their first real taste of organising against the party line. In response, Number 10 has adopted a dual strategy. While the aggressive briefing against plotters continues, a more subtle and reportedly effective tactic is being led by the new political secretary, Amy Richards, who is focused on ensuring Starmer spends significantly more time engaging with his parliamentary party.
Contenders Without a Clear Path
The gossip at festive gatherings increasingly involves wargaming hypothetical leadership battles. However, for Labour, there is no clear mechanism for a challenge, unlike the Conservatives' established 1922 Committee process. This uncertainty fuels endless speculation about the ambitions and potential manoeuvres of figures like Wes Streeting, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner.
Both Burnham and Streeting have publicly dismissed the focus on them, with Burnham notably stating, "If the call came, I'm not going to just turn away from it." Streeting's criticism of the government acting like a "maintenance team" is widely interpreted as a veiled critique of Starmer's managerial style. Meanwhile, Angela Rayner awaits the outcome of an HMRC investigation before her position is fully clear.
The rumour mill churns with scenarios: potential deals between Streeting and Rayner; the kingmaker role of figures like Ed Miliband or Lucy Powell; the possibility of an all-women shortlist to block Burnham; and even the impact of future union elections on the party's National Executive Committee.
Gossip Versus Governing Reality
While the speculation provides a diverting topic for MPs and advisers, any serious contender would face the same formidable challenges currently hampering Starmer: a rocky economic outlook, international instability, and a fractious parliamentary party. As one Conservative veteran observed, recalling the protracted downfall of Theresa May, prime ministers are not easily dislodged, and situations can deteriorate far further than the current polling suggests.
The ultimate conclusion from Westminster's chatter is that while the leadership rumour mill will rumble on, Keir Starmer has demonstrated through his allies that he is prepared for a fight. The coming months will test whether the quieter strategy of engagement with MPs can quell the internal discontent, or if the speculative gossip will crystallise into a tangible threat to his authority.
