Labour Leadership Crisis Deepens as Starmer's Authority Weakens
The Labour party finds itself engulfed in a deepening leadership crisis this week, with Keir Starmer's position appearing increasingly vulnerable after a badly mishandled operation by his allies spectacularly backfired. Attempts to shore up the Prime Minister's authority have instead exposed the fragility of his leadership and emboldened potential successors.
Botched Briefing Operation Exposes Deep Divisions
In what many Labour MPs describe as a catastrophic miscalculation, figures close to Starmer attempted to strengthen his position by briefing journalists that he would face down any leadership challenge. They specifically accused Wes Streeting of leading an advanced plot to overthrow the Prime Minister. Rather than demonstrating strength, this move revealed the extent of Starmer's vulnerability within his own party.
The political sharks were already circling before this misstep, with numerous senior Labour figures convinced they could provide better leadership. The botched Tuesday night briefing operation served as confirmation to many MPs that Starmer presides over an ineffectual Number 10 operation heading toward what they fear will be crushing defeats in Scottish, Welsh, and English local council elections next May.
This impression of a government in trouble solidified further on Friday when Downing Street abruptly abandoned its carefully trailed plans to increase income tax in the upcoming budget. Other government figures viewed this U-turn as the latest in a series of panicked attempts to protect Starmer's precarious position.
Leadership Contenders Begin Positioning Themselves
According to one minister, the situation has progressed to the point where MPs from various factions are now coordinating their efforts to replace Starmer. "MPs from a whole bunch of factions and camps, many once loyal, are all now talking with each other, they all think Keir is done, and are prepared to take risks together to get a more talented alternative," the minister revealed.
Even among those in the Parliamentary Labour Party who agree that removing Starmer is necessary, significant divisions exist about who should replace him. Backbenchers report that overtures from potential leadership candidates have intensified in the run-up to the budget, with one noting that "there have been a number of people jostling in the last six to eight weeks."
This sense of urgency appears driven by concerns that the field of contenders might soon become more competitive. One Labour MP explained: "My understanding is that Wes and potentially other contenders are terrified by the prospect that Andy Burnham will do a job swap with Jim McMahon and get back into the Commons in May. They think the clock is ticking."
The Frontrunners Emerge in Leadership Speculation
Wes Streeting has long been viewed by colleagues as Number 10's favoured successor, enjoying the support of key players in Starmer's operation including chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. One former adviser to a rival cabinet minister noted that "Wes has had preferential treatment" and "has been given free rein to talk about issues beyond his brief that aren't exactly party policy."
However, some senior Labour figures believe McSweeney's enthusiasm for Streeting has cooled over the past year, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood now potentially his preferred successor should Starmer step down. Mahmood has been hosting regular dinners for MPs interested in home affairs issues, though her allies strongly deny she has formed any alliance with McSweeney or that she has his tacit support.
Meanwhile, Streeting has notably tacked left in several policy areas, including speaking in favour of recognising Palestine in cabinet. He has also endeared himself to party grassroots by calling for Angela Rayner's return to government and stating that Lucy Powell had been "vindicated" in calling for a culture change in Number 10.
Wider Field of Potential Candidates
The soft left of the Parliamentary Labour Party currently lacks clear leadership following Angela Rayner's shock resignation over her tax affairs in September. Most MPs believe she would run if a contest occurred after May, giving her time to rehabilitate herself politically. One MP recently contacted by someone canvassing support for Rayner said she was "desperate to be back in the fort," though those close to her deny she is running any campaign.
Long-running rumours suggest that Rayner and Streeting could potentially form a leadership ticket, combining their appeal to both party membership and the wider public. Some on the soft left believe Rayner would need to appoint a serious, fiscally responsible chancellor to offer reassurance on economic management.
YouGov polling indicates that the net favourability ratings of everyone in cabinet are suffering from the government's unpopularity. Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, noted: "When we last asked about Wes Streeting in July, he got a net score of -19. In September, Lucy Powell got -13, Bridget Phillipson got -15, Shabana Mahmood got -20, Yvette Cooper got -24 and Angela Rayner got -40." Starmer's most recent net score was -51.
However, English added that for everyone except Starmer, there remains significant uncertainty among voters. Half of voters said they didn't know whether they viewed Streeting favourably or unfavourably, with the figures even higher for other potential contenders.
Among Labour party members, who would play a crucial role in selecting the next leader, YouGov's September polling suggested that Streeting would beat Mahmood by 45% to 24%, but would lose to Rayner by 31% to 55%. The one Labour politician who comfortably defeated everyone else in head-to-head matchups among party members and maintained a net public favourability rating of +2 was Andy Burnham, with an ally confirming the Greater Manchester mayor was "minded to make a comeback."
The field of potential candidates extends beyond these frontrunners, with at least half a dozen more ministers said to be positioning themselves. These include Ed Miliband, John Healey, Bridget Phillipson, Darren Jones, Louise Haigh, and Lucy Powell. Even two ministers from the latest intake - Miatta Fahnbulleh and Al Carns - are considered potential contenders by colleagues.
As one Labour MP who remains loyal to Starmer conceded: "Things have advanced so far down the track already it's not easy to see how Number 10 can clamp down on it. They need some bits of good news but they're not going to get it - because the budget is coming."
