Sir Keir Starmer is confronting a severe political crisis as his future as Labour leader faces mounting speculation and a pre-emptive strike from the Prime Minister's allies.
Downing Street has launched an extraordinary attack on potential plotters within the Labour Party, with the Prime Minister's allies issuing a stark warning that Sir Keir will not depart without a fight. The PM's team specifically singled out Cabinet Minister Wes Streeting as being 'on manoeuvres', an accusation he furiously condemned as 'self-destructive'.
The internal chaos is intensifying speculation that Sir Keir's tenure might be short-lived, with two critical events looming: the Budget on November 26 and potentially disastrous local elections in May. Labour MPs are warning their leader that he faces being ousted within months unless he can dramatically turn the party's fortunes around.
How a Formal Leadership Challenge Works
According to the Labour Party's official rulebook, the path to ousting a sitting leader is clearly defined. If there is no current vacancy for the party leadership, nominations can be sought by potential challengers.
Any MP seeking to replace Sir Keir must be nominated by 20 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party. With the party currently holding 405 MPs in the House of Commons, this means a challenger would need the support of 81 colleagues to force a leadership contest.
As the incumbent leader, Sir Keir Starmer would not be required to seek nominations to enter the race if he chooses to fight on. His name would automatically be placed on the ballot paper.
The election itself would involve both party members and affiliated supporters, such as trade union members, who have been Labour members for at least the previous six months. They would vote on a 'one person, one vote' basis.
The winning candidate must receive more than half of the votes. If there are more than two candidates and no one achieves this on the first count, a redistribution of votes based on preferences would occur. The victor would then be required to visit the King to confirm their position as Prime Minister.
The Potential for a Cabinet Revolt
A formal challenge is not the only threat to Sir Keir's leadership. A more likely scenario for forcing him out could involve making his position practically untenable.
A large-scale resignation from the Cabinet, or a massive groundswell of opposition within the Parliamentary Labour Party, could be enough to convince him to step down.
This method would have a distinct advantage for his rivals: it would clear the way for a wider leadership contest rather than forcing them to unite behind a single challenger from the outset.
This tactic is not without precedent in recent British politics. Boris Johnson suffered a similar fate in 2021 when a slew of ministers quit his government, leading to his eventual resignation. Mr Johnson ruefully remarked at the time that 'when the herd moves, it moves', a sentiment that may now be echoing through the corridors of Labour power.
The coming months will be critical for Sir Keir Starmer as he battles to maintain control of his party and prove he is the right leader to take Labour into the next general election.
