The Conservative Party has been plunged into a fresh crisis after the dramatic defection of former leadership rival Robert Jenrick to Nigel Farage's Reform UK, sparking fears of a wider exodus of MPs before the English local elections in May.
A Brutal Sacking and a Stark Warning
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch moved decisively on Thursday 16 January 2026, publicly sacking Mr Jenrick from his role as shadow justice secretary and suspending him from the party he joined at age 16. The move was a pre-emptive strike, timed to coincide with a Reform UK press conference in Scotland.
However, any sense of regained control was short-lived. Nigel Farage promptly issued a stark warning, setting an effective deadline of 7 May – the date of the upcoming local elections – for any other wavering Conservatives to join his party. This has triggered significant alarm within Tory headquarters.
"It could be game over by 7 May," one senior Conservative figure admitted to The Independent, highlighting the profound concern that Jenrick's departure may be just the beginning.
Divided Tories and a Case-by-Case Approach
Internally, the party is divided on how to handle potential defectors. While some advocate for harsh, uniform punishment, others urge a more nuanced strategy. The defections of former chairman Sir Jake Berry, MP Danny Kruger, and more recently, Lord Malcolm Offord and Nadhim Zahawi to Reform, have each been handled differently.
Lord Offord's move to become Reform's Scottish leader was taken personally by Ms Badenoch's husband, Hamish, a close friend of the peer. Some dismissed Offord as an unknown figure, while others saw his departure as symptomatic of a wider issue. "We have a number of people like that who don't get what they want, throw the toys out of the pram and flounce off to Reform," a source noted.
A senior Conservative source explained the tactical dilemma: "We need to go on a case by case basis with these people. Some like Zahawi we should be saying good bloody riddance... Others we should may leave a way back for."
Wooing Waverers and Hunting for Clues
Reform UK is actively capitalising on the turmoil, with senior figures like deputy leader Richard Tice wining and dining MPs considered potential recruits. One senior Tory MP confirmed they had recently been approached over dinner but resisted, stating "the Tory party is my home."
Meanwhile, Conservatives are scrutinising their colleagues for warning signs, recalling how Mr Jenrick had become distant from usual contacts over the Christmas period. The leadership hopes the brutal nature of his sacking will give others pause, but there is dissent even on this tactic. One MP challenged Chief Whip Rebecca Harris, protesting the punishment was too severe.
For Ms Badenoch's inner circle, the betrayal was compounded by the discovery of a speech Mr Jenrick planned to give, which contained personal attacks on shadow chancellor Mel Stride and shadow home secretary Priti Patel, alongside what was described as "pretty complimentary" praise for the Tory leader herself. "So why then would you leave? There's only one answer to that, which is your personal ambition," concluded one person involved in the planning to oust him.
An Uncertain Future and a Symbolic Staircase
Despite Ms Badenoch's public insistence on Friday that no more senior figures would defect, there is a clear consensus within her top team that Robert Jenrick will not be the last. The party is now braced for further departures from critics of her leadership and former Jenrick supporters.
"All we can do is keep plugging away with Kemi getting better and more relaxed, the polling improving and hope that will stem the defections," a senior figure conceded.
In a symbolic twist, Mr Jenrick's own unveiling as Reform's newest recruit was delayed because he got lost on the confusing staircases of Millbank Tower – the building that once housed Tony Blair's 1997 election campaign hub and now serves as Reform UK's headquarters. As Farage joked his new star might have scarpered, it was left to party treasurer, billionaire Nick Candy, to reassure him.
For a Conservative Party already battling internal strife and poor polling, the path to 7 May now looks fraught with the very real danger of further high-profile defections that could fundamentally reshape the British political landscape.
