Rishi Sunak suffered a double blow on Monday as Nigel Farage took over as leader of Reform UK and a YouGov poll projected Labour winning a historic majority of 194 seats, the largest since 1924. The Prime Minister's attempt to revive the Tory campaign was overshadowed by Farage's return to the political frontline, just hours before the survey forecast a crushing defeat for the Conservatives.
The YouGov MRP model predicts Labour would win 422 seats, while the Tories would be reduced to just 140, losing 232 seats. If confirmed, Labour’s majority would surpass Tony Blair’s 179-seat victory in 1997. The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain 48 seats, the SNP 17, Plaid Cymru two and the Greens two.
In London, the Conservatives would face near annihilation, dropping from 21 seats to just four, with no Tory MPs left in Inner London for the first time. Key seats including Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, and Kensington and Bayswater would fall to Labour. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and Steve Tuckwell in Boris Johnson’s former constituency are also projected to lose.
Several Cabinet ministers are at risk, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk. Outside London, Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker and Economic Secretary Bim Afolami are also in danger. The poll, conducted before Farage's announcement, did not account for his return, which adds further pressure on Tory candidates facing a battle on two fronts.
Farage, who had previously ruled out a major role in the election, immediately targeted the Tories over immigration and Europe. The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain seats including Wimbledon, Carshalton and Wallington, and Sutton and Cheam, as well as Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton constituency.
