A damning new opinion poll has revealed a significant rebellion against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer from within his own party's support base. The survey, commissioned by The Independent, shows that more than one in three people who voted Labour in the 2024 general election believe the party's electoral prospects would improve if he were replaced.
Labour Voters Deliver a Stark Verdict
The research, conducted by the market research firm JL Partners on the 13th and 14th of December, paints a troubling picture for the beleaguered Prime Minister. It found that 38 per cent of 2024 Labour voters think the party would perform better at a future election under a new leader. In a stark contrast, only 13 per cent believe it would do worse without him.
In a further blow to Sir Keir's standing, those who backed his party also ranked him as the worst Labour prime minister in history, with Tony Blair placed second-worst. The findings add fuel to the fevered speculation in Westminster about plots by backbenchers and cabinet rivals to depose him.
Burnham the Runaway Favourite Despite Hurdle
When asked who should succeed Sir Keir, Labour supporters overwhelmingly chose Andy Burnham. The Mayor of Greater Manchester and former Cabinet Minister secured 19 per cent of the vote among party voters, making him the clear favourite.
He was followed by former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner (10 per cent) and deputy party leader Lucy Powell (9 per cent). Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband both polled at 6 per cent, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood on 4 per cent, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson on 3 per cent, and Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones on 2 per cent.
Notably, the top three alternative candidates are all positioned to the political left of Starmer. This shift could help counter the Green Party's revival but may risk losing 'Red Wall' voters in the North to Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The poll indicated particular discontent in the North West, where 14 per cent of Labour voters said the party would do "much better" with a new leader.
Wider Implications and Leadership Contest Reality
The crisis of confidence extends beyond party lines but is more acute among Labour's own voters. While the general public favours Sir Keir stepping down by a two-to-one margin, the ratio among Labour voters is three-to-one. A significant 39 per cent of Labour voters said removing him would make no difference to election hopes, and 30 per cent offered no opinion on a successor.
Despite being the first choice among all voters to replace the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham faces a major constitutional obstacle: he is not a Member of Parliament and is therefore currently ineligible to stand in any Labour leadership contest. Sir Keir has, meanwhile, made clear his determination to lead the party into the next election.
The Independent's poll was commissioned following revelations that the influential Labour Together group, which helped Sir Keir win power, had secretly surveyed its own members on his popularity. While those results remain unpublished, they are expected to mirror the stark findings of this wider poll, which asked the same core questions about resignation and succession.
