Keir Starmer's Labour Party is projected to lose over 1,800 councillors in next week's crucial local elections, according to a leading elections analyst. Lord Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and seasoned commentator on local elections, has forecast that Labour will suffer a net loss of 1,850 seats across England, Scotland, and Wales as millions of voters prepare to go to the polls on Thursday.
Nationwide Losses for Labour
Lord Hayward described the anticipated losses as a "nightmare" scenario for the Prime Minister, with the party facing a two-pronged attack from both the right and left. He warned that Labour's losses would be felt nationwide, not just in traditional battlegrounds. The elections encompass council contests across England, as well as key votes in Scotland and Labour-controlled Wales.
Reform UK and Greens Poised for Gains
According to Lord Hayward, Nigel Farage's Reform UK will emerge as the biggest beneficiary, gaining approximately 1,550 seats from a low base. Meanwhile, the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is on track to secure 500 seats, particularly in London and middle-class areas of other cities. The Conservatives, under Kemi Badenoch, are also expected to lose 600 councillors, as the party previously benefited from a "vaccine bounce" in 2021.
Lord Hayward's analysis follows reports that a loss of 1,500 seats could trigger a "collective nervous breakdown" within the Cabinet. He stated: "My figures take them well above that figure, well above. My sense is some of the Labour Party are not prepared for the losses that are resulting from what is in effect a two-pronged attack from both Reform in the Midlands and the North and from Greens in some of the big cities, and in particular in London."
Political Fallout and Reactions
The elections are seen as a make-or-break moment for Starmer, following a turbulent week over the Peter Mandelson scandal. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham suggested Labour should adopt a "different course" after the elections, describing the expected results as "challenging" and calling for a "moment of reflection." Burnham also declined to rule out a future bid for a Westminster comeback, despite being blocked by Starmer and Labour's governing body in February. He said: "The politics we've pioneered as mayors: place first, not party first — that needs to go national, and so we do need to reform Westminster. I can't remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back."
Lord Hayward also predicted that the Liberal Democrats would gain 150 seats, while independent candidates could secure around 250 seats. In total, more than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs, including all 32 boroughs in London.
Labour Campaign Response
A Labour campaign source told The Mirror: "Mid-term elections are normally difficult for the party of government. These elections are no different. We're out speaking to people across the country and fighting for every vote. We have a really positive story to tell on the NHS, investment in local areas, and what we're doing to support families with the cost of living. There's a clear choice next Thursday though: Labour on your side, with your local Labour council working in partnership with a Labour Government. Or Nigel Farage and Reform, who would put your family, your NHS and your community at risk."
Polling and Expert Views
Lord Hayward's analysis follows a YouGov poll last week indicating that Labour faces "historic losses" in its London heartland, where the Greens are eroding the party's vote share. The pollster's MRP survey suggested Labour would maintain the largest vote share in only about 15 of the councils it currently holds in the capital, down from 21 in the 2022 London borough elections.
However, elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice cautioned that the gap between Labour and the Greens in London remains "a very substantial one." He added: "Therefore, it's whether or not the Greens could actually do well to move from yes, gaining votes from Labour, picking up the odd seat in wards here or there, to actually making a significant breakthrough. It's not clear to me at present that that's where we're at."
