New year polling data has delivered a stark warning to Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party, revealing a dramatic collapse in public support that sees it fall into a distant fourth place. The research, conducted by Lord Ashcroft, places Labour behind not only the Conservatives but also Reform UK and the Green Party, marking a seismic shift from its comfortable lead at the start of 2025.
A Festive Image of Boredom and Strategic Retreat
The survey contained revealing, if whimsical, questions about political leaders at a Christmas party. Voters judged that a Labour office party would be a dull event in a Holiday Inn off the M6, likely featuring a row over putting flags on cakes. Sir Keir Starmer was seen as the leader most likely to give a boring festive speech, with some suggesting Labour might not celebrate Christmas at all due to a perceived hostility to tradition.
Beyond the festive frivolity, however, lies a serious political reality. The pollster's first survey of 2025 put Labour in a strong first position. This latest data shows it in a sportsmanlike fourth, a decline attributed to a catalogue of unpopular policies.
The Policies Behind the Polling Plunge
Lord Ashcroft's analysis points to a clear list of grievances eroding Labour's vote. These include the controversial winter fuel allowance cuts, a perceived failure to control illegal migration, and a stagnating economy. Voters are also angered by the pursuit of Net Zero goals over affordable energy, concerns over two-tier policing, and what are seen as sinister proposals for compulsory digital ID and restricting trial by jury.
Combined with a significant increase in taxes and little visible improvement in public services, these issues have taken a severe toll. The recent Budget, which raised taxes on working people to fund increased welfare spending and lifted the two-child benefit cap, is cited as a key example. This move is interpreted not merely as a capitulation to backbenchers but as a strategic decision to abandon centre-Right voters who lent Labour their support in the last election.
The Real Battle: Left-Wing Consolidation vs Right-Wing Fragmentation
Despite the dramatic headline numbers, the underlying political landscape shows less movement. In January, the combined Right (Conservatives and Reform) stood at 45%, with the Left bloc (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid) on 55%. This month, the figures are 47% and 53% respectively—a statistically insignificant change.
This reveals Labour's core strategic problem: its main threat is not voters defecting to the Right, but the Left-wing vote fragmenting. Party strategists fear a split between the Greens, Lib Dems, nationalists, and pro-Gaza independents, which could allow Conservative forces back into contention. Recent signals, such as hints about unpicking aspects of Brexit and moves towards recognising a Palestinian state, are seen as attempts to circle the Left-wing wagons.
Meanwhile, a separate contest rages on the Right. While Nigel Farage—seen by voters as most likely to disappear to the pub or burn the Christmas lunch—has been less prominent, Kemi Badenoch's star is rising. Voters selected her as most likely to help clear up and buy good presents, and as the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe. Her strong Budget response has boosted her ratings as she carves out a distinct Conservative economic position.
However, the path to a unified Right remains rocky. One third of Reform voters would choose a non-Tory alternative if Reform wasn't standing, and over half of current Conservatives name a party other than Reform as their second preference, including a sizeable group opting for the Lib Dems. This presents a sobering challenge for those advocating a formal Tory-Reform pact.
As Sir Keir Starmer's Labour retreats to consolidate its Left-wing base, the critical question for the Right is whether it can avoid retreating into its own divided camp and instead present a united front to a vulnerable government.
