Kamala Harris, the former Vice President, remains the frontrunner among Democratic voters for a potential 2028 White House bid, but California Governor Gavin Newsom is emerging as a significant challenger, according to fresh polling data.
The Polling Landscape: A Two-Horse Race Emerges
A new JL Partners poll for the Daily Mail, conducted between December 17-19 among 383 likely Democratic primary voters, places Harris in first place with 30 percent support. Governor Gavin Newsom, who has raised his national profile through pointed political engagements, holds second place with 21 percent.
The survey indicates a substantial gap before any other potential contenders. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails in a distant third with just 7 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly are tied for fourth, each on 4 percent. All other speculated candidates, including Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, registered at 3 percent or less.
The Racial Divide: Harris's Core Strength
The critical factor separating the two leading candidates is their appeal among Black Democratic voters. When the poll isolates this demographic, Harris's advantage becomes stark. Among Black voters, Harris commands 39 percent support compared to Newsom's 10 percent.
This demographic power base is the engine of Harris's current resilience in the polls. In a hypothetical scenario considering only white Democratic voters, Harris and Newsom would be deadlocked at 25 percent each. Pete Buttigieg also shows a pronounced struggle with Black voters, securing a mere 2 percent with this group versus 9 percent with white voters—a dynamic reminiscent of his 2020 primary challenges.
Contrasting Polls and Political Predictions
The polling picture for 2028 is not uniform. An Atlas Intel poll released this month presented a different frontrunner, showing Newsom with a clear lead at 35 percent among 670 Democratic voters. In that survey, Harris did not make the top three, with Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg ahead of her.
Meanwhile, Republican Vice President JD Vance, seen as a likely 2028 GOP frontrunner, predicted Democrats would nominate a "California liberal." Speaking at Turning Point's AmericaFest in Phoenix, Arizona, he quipped the party was merely deciding "whether it's going to be Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris."
Neither Harris's team nor Newsom's office responded to the Daily Mail's requests for comment on their potential 2028 plans or the specific polling data regarding voter demographics.
