Exclusive polling data has revealed a seismic shift in the Australian political landscape, with the Coalition suffering a historic collapse in its core support base. Voters aged over 65 and those without a university education are deserting the Liberal-National partnership in significant numbers, turning instead to Senator Pauline Hanson's One Nation party.
A Historic Low for the Coalition
According to a quarterly analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted for The Australian, the Coalition's primary vote plunged to just 24 per cent in October 2025. This figure represents the lowest level of core support for the Liberal and National parties since Newspoll first began collating primary votes in November 1985. The Coalition failed to recover the following month, remaining stuck at that same dismal 24 per cent.
The data, collected between September 29 and November 20, paints a stark picture of voter disillusionment. The most dramatic defections are coming from two traditional bastions of Coalition support: older Australians and voters without a tertiary education.
Core Voters Jump Ship to One Nation
The analysis shows a direct correlation between the Coalition's decline and One Nation's rise. Among voters without a university degree, support for the Coalition fell by six points to 26 per cent in the latter half of 2025. Over the same period, Labor also dipped by two points to 30 per cent in this demographic, suggesting One Nation is drawing support from both major parties.
The trend is even more pronounced among Australians aged 65 and over. Newspoll confirmed that both the Coalition and Labor have lost ground to Hanson's party within this key demographic. Furthermore, the shift is not confined to one gender; both male and female voters moved away from the Coalition towards One Nation in the final quarter of the year.
Queensland has emerged as a prime example of this political realignment. The home state of Pauline Hanson saw One Nation's primary vote surge to 18 per cent in the last quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the Coalition's primary vote in the state fell to 27 per cent, while Labor's core support rose to 33 per cent.
Broader Political Implications and Leadership Ratings
The Newspoll findings, gathered before the Bondi Beach terror attack and the high-profile defection of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce to One Nation, indicate a deep-seated voter realignment. A separate survey by Roy Morgan, covering up to mid-December, found One Nation's support hit a record high of 17 per cent, having more than doubled since July. This beat the party's previous record of 14.5 per cent set in 1998. Roy Morgan noted that Joyce's move to One Nation made the surge in support "no surprise".
The polling also sheds light on the nation's view of its leaders. A majority of both male and female voters believe Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is a better leader than Opposition Leader Sussan Ley. Satisfaction with Ley's performance sits at just 27 per cent among men and 28 per cent among women, with 70 per cent and 49 per cent respectively expressing dissatisfaction.
On a two-party preferred basis, the data spells further trouble for the Coalition. While Labor leads 52 to 48 per cent in Queensland, the gap is far wider in other states:
- Victoria: Labor leads 60 to 40 per cent.
- New South Wales: Labor leads 58 to 42 per cent.
- Western Australia: Labor leads 56 to 44 per cent.
- South Australia: Labor leads 58 to 42 per cent.
The exodus of its traditional base to a populist rival represents one of the most significant challenges the Coalition has faced in decades, signalling a potential permanent reshaping of the Australian electoral map.
