Seven out of ten voters say Keir Starmer has not been a success as Prime Minister, according to a new Opinium survey. Sir Keir will meet the King on Monday to formally resign, with Andy Burnham then taking over as Prime Minister. But as Sir Keir prepares to depart Downing Street for the last time, the scale of his failure is laid bare in the poll.
Poll Reveals Stark Verdict on Starmer’s Tenure
The survey by Opinium found only one in five voters thinks Sir Keir’s government was a success, while 69% say it was not. Two years after Sir Keir led Labour to general election victory over the Conservative party led by Rishi Sunak, two in five voters say he has actually been a worse Prime Minister and just 25% think his government turned out to be an improvement.
In a warning to Andy Burnham, who may enjoy a “honeymoon” period of popularity when he first becomes Prime Minister, nearly half of voters say their opinion of Sir Keir became more negative during his time in office.
Labour’s Polling Improves Amid Leadership Change
Despite the negative verdict on Starmer, voters appear optimistic about the change of Prime Minister. Labour’s vote share is up three points to 22% according to the Opinium survey, which is their highest vote share since April 2026. This puts Labour just one point behind Reform, on 23%, while the Conservatives come in a close third on 20%, their highest vote share since April 2025.
Mr Burnham faces a public divided on the overall direction of tax and public spending. A quarter think taxes and public spending should rise, while the same proportion believe that taxes and public spending should be reduced. A third favour keeping taxes and public spending about where they are currently.
Expert Analysis of the Poll
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “Starmer leaves office with a public verdict few prime ministers would envy. Most voters do not see his government as a success, and nearly half say their view of him deteriorated during his premiership.”
“However, Labour’s improved polling shows voters may be distinguishing between the outgoing Prime Minister and the party itself. Burnham inherits an opportunity, but also a public that remains unconvinced any political leader can be trusted on the economy.”
Poll Methodology
Opinium questioned a representative sample of 2,050 UK adults aged 18 and over between 15th-17th July 2026.
