Kenneth Roth argues that Donald Trump's newly announced deal with Iran underscores the futility of his war of aggression. The agreement, a 14-point memorandum of understanding, is described as empty, with Iranian leaders celebrating. Roth contends that Trump's bombing campaign did not produce a result superior to Barack Obama's 2015 diplomacy, which Trump abandoned in 2018.
Trump's Supposed Victories
Trump may highlight two supposed victories. First, Iran reiterates it will never produce nuclear weapons, but this pledge existed in the Obama accord. The key issue is curtailing steps toward nuclear weapons, which Obama did through severe restrictions. Trump can only hope to secure similar limitations in negotiations over the next 60 days, but complex issues are unlikely to be resolved quickly. The deal allows for extensions by mutual consent, leaving unresolved questions on uranium enrichment limits, export or dilution of highly enriched uranium, and dismantlement of the nuclear program. The deal states these will be resolved by mutual agreement, which is not airtight. Trump ties sanctions relief to concessions that could have been achieved through diplomacy without war.
Second, Trump will highlight Iran's agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where restrictions on oil and gas movement caused price surges and inflation. However, Iran only closed the strait after Trump initiated his war. Tehran now sees the power of this weapon, and the genie is out of the bottle. Trump claimed the strait will be permanently toll free, but the deal does not say that, and Iranian officials maintain the right to impose fees for unspecified services, potentially including not firing on ships. Trump's war has left global commerce worse off.
What the Deal Does Not Include
The deal notably lacks provisions on Iran's ballistic missile program, military support for regional allies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and regime change in Tehran—all reasons cited by Trump for going to war. His bombing accomplished nothing in these areas. Instead of regime change, he obtained regime hardening, as US and Israeli bombers killed clerical leaders, leaving IRGC officials in charge.
Iran can trumpet victories, including a requirement for Israel to end attacks in Lebanon. This gives Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to play spoiler, but he may not dare, as Trump has become overtly angry at the Israeli prime minister, calling him crazy and criticizing his disproportionate attacks.
Economic Incentives Were Available Before
Trump commits to issuing waivers for all sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports once the accord is signed, rewarding a return to the February status quo before bombing. He agrees to release frozen Iranian assets based on negotiation progress, and eventually lift all sanctions, plus a $300bn private fund for Iran's rehabilitation. These incentives were all available in February; the bombing made no positive difference.
The failure of Trump's military adventure may give him pause before trying another, similar to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Resorting to military force is often more complicated than Trump's quick removal of Venezuela's Maduro. Might does not guarantee victory, and there remains a role for diplomacy.
Kenneth Roth is a Guardian US columnist, visiting professor at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs, and former executive director of Human Rights Watch. He is the author of Righting Wrongs: Three Decades on the Front Lines Battling Abusive Governments.
