The Welsh Conservative Party recently claimed on X that the default 20mph speed limit in Wales would cost the economy up to £9 billion, citing a government document. However, a closer look at the Welsh Government's explanatory memorandum reveals a more nuanced picture.
What the Document Actually Says
The explanatory memorandum for the Restricted Roads Order 2022, published in June 2022, estimates the total cost of the policy over 30 years (2023-2052) at £4.5 billion when accounting for both costs and benefits. The £8.9 billion figure highlighted by the Welsh Conservatives refers to the upper end of the estimated cost of longer journey times for businesses and the public, but this is only one component of the analysis.
Breakdown of Costs and Benefits
- Direct government costs: Approximately £33 million, including £29 million for implementation in 2022-2023.
- Benefits: Improved road safety worth £1.4 billion, and environmental and health benefits worth £0.5 billion.
- Disbenefits: Longer journey times costing an estimated £6.4 billion, with a range of £2.7 billion to £8.9 billion due to significant uncertainty.
- Net cost: Combining all factors, the policy is expected to cost £4.5 billion over 30 years.
The memorandum notes that the majority of journey time increases are less than two minutes per trip.
Sector Impacts
The policy's impact varies by sector:
- Welsh Government: Gains approximately £25 million, as direct costs of £32.5 million are outweighed by £57 million in road safety benefits.
- Local authorities: No net cost, as government grants cover signage and staffing expenses.
- Businesses: Expected to lose £1.6 billion due to reduced productivity from longer journey times.
- General public: Benefits of £1.3 billion from road safety, £505 million from health and environment, and £4 million from reduced emissions, but these are outweighed by £4.7 billion in lost time, resulting in a net cost of £2.9 billion.
Ongoing Research
Transport for Wales continues to research the policy's impact. The Welsh Government maintains that the primary goal is to reduce collisions and encourage active travel, despite the economic costs.
In summary, the claim of a £9 billion cost is misleading. The official estimate is £4.5 billion over 30 years, acknowledging significant uncertainty in the figures.
