Andy Burnham is the most popular leader in Scotland, according to polling, and his speech in Motherwell today demonstrated why. It was the best speech a UK Prime Minister has made on a trip north of the Border in the last 10 years.
Burnham spoke knowledgeably about real issues facing parts of the country, including depopulation in Inverclyde and the huge gap in life expectancy in different parts of Glasgow, and showed a genuine desire to help solve them. He paid tribute to the proud industrial heritage of Lanarkshire and the steel workers of Motherwell in particular.
Positive message for Scotland
He made a simple but effective point: the problems facing many Scottish communities are often the very same ones facing towns and cities in England. Burnham was telling Scottish voters that the UK Government led by him is here to help and can be a force for good. He repeatedly said he wanted to work with John Swinney and not pick fights with him.
The First Minister has made similar noises in Holyrood in the past about his desire to work with opposition parties there, but Burnham's offer is more significant. SNP politicians endlessly portray Westminster in a solely negative light, and working with the UK Government does not come naturally to them. In the minds of many Nationalists, the House of Commons is a foreign power which must be resisted at all costs.
Clash with SNP narrative
Burnham is attempting to rise above this. He neatly sidestepped a question from a reporter who asked him to respond to Stephen Flynn's assessment that the SNP is living "rent free" in the PM's head. The Labour leader is sincere in his desire to work with Holyrood and his belief that Scottish councils are underpowered and undermined by a Scottish Government addicted to centralising services.
Burnham sees an opening north of the Border. His speech at Ravenscraig is part of a concerted push to win over Scottish voters. In the coming days, the UK Government will finally announce whether the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas developments will be permitted off the coast of Aberdeen and Shetland. He has also promised a national devolution summit will follow.
Election prospects
Polling published today shows the SNP's lead in Westminster voting intentions has almost halved since Burnham took over, with Labour up to around 22% of the national vote. The next big election will be a UK poll, and Labour must hold a fair number of its Scottish seats if it is to win another majority.
The question is whether the Burnham bounce can last. The PM may get lucky: Donald Trump will, at some point, have to call a halt to his pointless and immensely expensive war in the Middle East, and petrol prices will likely fall as a result, easing inflation. But there are pitfalls ahead, starting with a Budget on October 28. Burnham's pitch to Scottish voters is: trust me, and I'll fight your corner. It might just work.
