An expert has outlined how a Russian nuclear attack on the UK could unfold, from the initial missile launch to a potential retaliatory strike. The scenario comes as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues, the Kremlin conducts a "hybrid" war against NATO, and Moscow has warned that nuclear weapons could be used in response to British "military action".
Detection and Warning Timeline
Dr. Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic weapons and defence industry, and a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy of Queen's University in Canada, said that after a Russian missile launches, it would be detected by RAF Fylingdales's missile warning system (BMEWS) in North Yorkshire. Within 60 seconds, the system is obliged to transmit notification to Britain's National Defence Centre and the Joint Warning Centre to assess the weapon's trajectory and target.
Next, Dr. Starchak said, within three minutes — or earlier — an automatic and operator assessment of the event must take place, after which the Prime Minister, the Defence Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Staff are notified of the attack and its nature. "At the same time, the United States receives its own information about the attack from its warning systems," the expert added.
"London-Washington contacts take place, and possibly also London-Paris. NATO information-sharing begins. Within 10 minutes after the attack, the authorities must transmit an air-raid warning or emergency alerts via television and radio broadcasting, the internet and other Government channels."
Decision-Making and Response
Dr. Starchak noted that in any scenario, three to five minutes will be spent on assessing the event, calculating the trajectory and transmitting information to the political leadership. The remaining time will be spent on decision-making. "If the strike is by an IRBM or a land-based ICBM, there will be time to make a decision," he said. "But, if it is an SLBM strike, there will be no time. A response — if there is anyone left to carry it out — will only come after such a strike."
"Within another five to 10 notional minutes after assessing the event, a decision must be made. To launch a retaliatory nuclear strike against pre-designated targets on Russian territory, or not to launch a retaliatory strike. If yes, then an order must be given in encrypted form to the SSBN Vanguard commander to launch. On the submarine, in addition to the commander, one other officer must confirm readiness for a retaliatory strike. The submarine prepares the launch and carries out the retaliatory strike with SLBM Trident II D5."
Possible Strike Scenarios
Dr. Starchak said the scenarios could differ and listed possible ways the Kremlin could launch a strike:
- A limited strike with tactical nuclear weapons to demonstrate readiness for major escalation and to test NATO's reaction. Intermediate-range ballistic missiles such as Oreshnik might be used. The flight time of Oreshnik from Belarus to the United Kingdom is estimated at 10 to 20 minutes. Targets may be selected that have high military value but are located far from large cities, in order to minimise civilian casualties and leave room for a political settlement. For example, RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland. The strike could be a single one or a series.
- A massed strategic strike for counterforce and countervalue destruction. Key Royal Air Force and Royal Navy bases and radar stations, defence-industrial facilities, primarily the BAE Systems shipyard, London and other major cities. ICBMs would be used for this (20 to 30 minutes from Siberia). The flight time for missiles launched from submarines in the Arctic could be from four to 10 minutes.
- A decapitation strike scenario, in which the target is the political and military leadership. In that case, strikes would be against the Prime Minister's residence, the Ministry of Defence building and other key command centres, and the Pindar government bunker in London. Such strikes could be delivered by Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, Kh-102 cruise missiles, and Oreshnik IRBMs with nuclear warheads.
Reasons for an Attack
Regarding whether Moscow could launch an attack, the expert said it could occur if Kaliningrad — a Russian province inside Europe — were blockaded or cut off, "in which UK involvement would be clearly and undoubtedly evident". Another reason could be British "participation in a direct military clash between NATO and Russia in which Russia suffers substantial setbacks".
Dr. Starchak also suggested that a strike could happen "during a military clash between NATO and Russia, when the UK strikes Russian strategic military facilities, which Moscow interprets as an attempt to deprive it of the ability to use nuclear weapons", as "a response to a UK or joint Western nuclear strike", or as a scenario "in which Moscow mistakenly takes certain UK or joint NATO actions as preparations for a disarming strike against Russia".
Finally, a nuclear attack could come if as a result of the UK "transferring nuclear technologies or components for a 'bomb' to Ukraine". But the specialist mentioned that Russia's "first target would probably be Ukraine itself, as a safer option".
Expert Views on Likelihood
Emeritus professor at the University of Buckingham, Anthony Glees, does not believe a nuclear attack on the UK by Russia is "at all likely", even though Britain is "already in a limited war with Russia". He said: "We choose to call it a 'hybrid' war, or a 'grey-zone' war but the successful Cold War doctrine, one Russian foot over the border with a NATO state means Russia will be obliterated' has been ditched. Now we put up with Russian footprints all over the UK and all over the states that are our European NATO allies. I am convinced Putin is testing and probing what he regards as this key weakness on our part and that the coming war with him, unless we can deter him, will be fought 'conventionally', that is, without nuclear weapons but with drones, with subversive tools of all kinds, and ultimately with Russian troops. As I've said more than once, it is my thought that a Russian attack on the UK will come either via the Baltic Sea, in which case the UK will be at the end of a chain, or 'over the top' via the High North in which case Norway and the UK will be in prime pole position."
There are three reasons why Putin would target the UK with nukes "only as a very last, suicidal 'bunker' response to a war with us", Prof. Glees added. "He wants Britain and indeed all of Western Europe to be Russian colonies," the specialist said. "A nuclear attack on the UK would destroy the UK for all foreseeable time, France and Western Europe along with ourselves, and so be worthless in asset terms. We would be turned to radioactive ash but so would our wealth."
Secondly, the prevailing wind blows from the west towards the east. A UK destroyed by nuclear weapons would produce a radioactive wind, possibly a blizzard, that would inevitably make its way towards the European part of Russia. Putin might be safe in his Black Sea fun palace but his allegedly beloved Russians would fall sick with radiation disease and end up dead.
"And third, if we knew we were under attack from Russia and that attack proved to be nuclear, the Prime Minister's orders to our Vanguard continuous at sea submarine force would be clear and devastating for Russia. The order would go out to launch our nuclear ballistic Trident missiles from our nuclear powered submarines and turn the Russian Federation into ash."
On what he thinks would happen if the Kremlin did launch a nuclear weapon, Prof. Glees said: "Putin knows what we all know: Britain has no way of preventing a ballistic nuclear tipped missile ('ballistic' means it can be launched from anywhere on earth or from space, so travels in space, outside Earth's atmosphere, before entering it to hit its target). He also knows that we have no way of preventing the UK from being attacked by a cruise missile which travels low and can evade our electronic early warning station based at RAF Fylingdales which uses space surveillance to try to detect a ballistic missile but is of no use at all in detecting the Russian Burevestnik or Storm Petrel cruise missile, for which our codename is Skyfall, once flying low over the central European plain towards the UK."
"We think it is still being developed but once ready for use its range is unlimited. Of course, Russia has other nuclear weapons it could use but in my view Skyfall would be Putin's weapon of choice. It is subsonic, however, and travels at 580 mph so could potentially be spotted by land-based radar although with difficulty."
"Ideally, Putin would order the use of the Oreshnik hypersonic nuclear missile which flies at Mach 10, so ten times the speed of sound, 7,600 mph. But it could be detected by RAF Fylingdales. If the Oreshnik missiles were to strike the UK and this were detected, we might get literally one minute's notice of an attack."
"There might just be enough time for the Prime Minister to order the captain of whichever Vanguard sub was at sea to retaliate against the Russians and Russia would be obliterated. Margaret Thatcher insisted this weapon should be a doomsday weapon and take out every city and major town in Russia, and we think this is still the case."
"If Skyfall were used we might have a few more minutes to prepare but the difference to ordinary Brits would be marginal. Five minutes to seek a safe space, no more than that. Those five minutes would actually be used to say 'goodbye' to our loved ones and pets. Then it would be over."
Whilst in theory Putin might decide to target London and nowhere else, that might mean that other parts of the UK would have longer to prepare themselves perhaps up to half an hour. But it is unlikely that Putin would do this. Three or four Skyfalls, one at London, one at RAF Fylingdales and one at our nuclear bases on the Clyde, so Scotland, would end the matter, in his favour.
