A new MRP poll by Electoral Calculus predicts that the Green Party will win 21 seats in London at the next general election, dealing a major blow to Labour, which would be left with just 27 MPs in the capital. The Conservatives would win 19 seats, the Liberal Democrats six, and Reform UK one.
Key seats at risk
The poll suggests that Sir Keir Starmer, MP for Holborn and St Pancras, and David Lammy, MP for Tottenham and current Justice Secretary, would lose their seats to the Greens. Other Labour figures like Wes Streeting would hold on in Ilford North.
The Greens are projected to win in a swathe of east and central London constituencies, including Barking, East Ham, Leyton and Wanstead, Walthamstow, Stratford and Bow, Islington South and Finsbury, Queen’s Park and Maida Vale, Vauxhall and Camberwell Green, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Bethnal Green and Stepney, Poplar and Limehouse, West Ham and Beckton, Ilford South, Peckham, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Lewisham North, Brent East, and Clapham and Brixton Hill.
Conservatives and Reform UK
The Conservatives would win back Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, and Chelsea and Fulham. Reform UK would gain Dagenham and Rainham but lose Romford, currently held by Andrew Rosindell, who defected from the Tories. Jeremy Corbyn would retain his Islington North seat.
National implications
According to the poll, Labour is set to win 217 seats nationally, the Conservatives 151, and Reform UK 127, with possible signs of a 'Burnham bounce' as Andy Burnham is due to become Prime Minister on July 20. However, the poll also shows a significant drop in popularity for Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which is no longer projected to be the largest party after the next election, expected in 2029.
The survey was conducted by Find Out Now online among 5,545 adults in Britain between 23-30 June 2026 for the Electoral Calculus MRP survey on behalf of communications agency PLMR.
