Keir Starmer’s closest aides are “war-gaming” how to win a leadership contest ahead of Andy Burnham’s much-anticipated return to Westminster if he wins the Makerfield byelection, the Guardian understands. Downing Street sources said the prime minister had taken the last fortnight to think seriously about his future but was now “hellbent” on fighting any contest. His team is working through various scenarios, including sacking ministers who publicly support Burnham.
However, several close allies acknowledged that Starmer’s future may be out of his hands. “Keir may be determined to fight any challenge. But when it comes to it, he might not have a choice. As one former prime minister put it, when the herd moves, it moves,” a loyalist minister said. They said Starmer was self-aware enough to stand aside should he get closer to the general election and feel that Labour could not win against Reform with him at the helm, but could with somebody else, but added: “He’s not there yet.”
Burnham said last week that he would seek to join any potential Labour leadership contest should he beat Reform in the byelection next week and return to Westminster, but has not ruled out challenging Starmer himself if it should come to it. So the prime minister’s team – despite a degree of scepticism – is preparing. One senior aide said: “Maybe it is over. But if so, Keir’s not going without a fight. Our plan is to be more Harry Truman and less Joe Biden.”
Steve Reed, one of the cabinet ministers most loyal to Starmer, said he was convinced the prime minister would fight any leadership contest, and that he should even offer Burnham a job if he wins in Makerfield. “I know how he feels, because we speak to each other, and he is determined to deliver the change that he was elected to deliver,” Reed said. “He led us to one of the biggest landslide victories in our party’s history [four years after becoming leader]. A man that can deliver that kind of change in that period of time is not a man that lacks determination.”
Allies of the prime minister argue that Burnham is unprepared for a leadership challenge, as he and his team have been juggling the Makerfield campaign alongside planning for what might follow. They said they believed that in the first few weeks after any byelection victory, much of his time would be spent campaigning in the subsequent election for a new mayor of Greater Manchester – the role he would vacate if he won Makerfield. Once that had happened, MPs went away for the summer and then party conference season began. “By the time you get there, Burnham’s momentum has started to ebb,” said one.
Polling of party members has given his supporters some hope: in a YouGov poll, 59% said they would back Burnham against Starmer, with 37% saying they would vote to keep the prime minister in place. Allies believed the prime minister could secure a 10% swing once Burnham faced scrutiny. They hoped that once the limelight turned on to Burnham, more MPs would conclude that he would struggle as prime minister. “The more Andy is tested, the more people see he’s not up to the job,” one said. Others cited his BBC Newsnight interview, arguing he was out of his depth.
