Andy Burnham's extraordinary by-election win in Makerfield will have a seismic impact on UK and Scottish politics. His 9,231 majority on 55% of the vote will almost certainly lead to him toppling Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
A New Era for Labour
The Greater Manchester Mayor has proven he can beat Reform in the famous Red Wall and unite the centre-left. Starmer's exit from Downing Street will come sooner rather than later. The struggling PM has promised to fight any leadership contest, but his words sound like bravado.
Starmer's allies say the priority must be winning the mayoral by-election caused by Burnham, instead of a scrap between MPs. But this is a desperate argument designed to keep Starmer in Number 10 and it will not wash.
Impact on Scottish Politics
Such an outcome will likely transform the 2029 general election, which was looking like a lost cause for Labour. Even if Burnham puts on five or six percentage points, the split on the Right between Reform, the Tories and Restore may gift Labour a second term.
A Burnham premiership could also transform the political landscape in Scotland. In the wake of a humiliating defeat at the Holyrood election, Scottish Labour is in a dark place. Their MSPs walk around like zombies and the MPs crack dark jokes about losing their seats in 2029.
I was at Westminster this week and more than one senior figure said that if Starmer remains as PM, Scottish Labour could fall from 37 MPs to just one. The Scottish MPs - spanning the soft Left to the Right - are desperate for Starmer to fall and be replaced by Burnham, even if they have private doubts on his capabilities.
With the fortunes of Scottish Labour tied to the UK party, a Burnham boost could end up helping whoever takes over from Anas Sarwar. One MP even speculated the party could hold on to most of their 37 seats in 2029 if Burnham takes over.
Burnham's Agenda
Burnham supporters believe his agenda as Prime Minister will also be popular north of the border. Instead of simply rejecting independence, they expect him to advance a constitutional reform agenda of his own. This could involve an elected House of Lords, changing the voting system and pushing power out of Westminster into the nations and regions.
"Andy understands devolution," said one senior Scottish Labour figure. "Unlike Keir who just seemed to tolerate it." Greater public control of energy, housing, water and transport would be in tune with the social democratic instinct of Scottish voters, as would rethinking Brexit. He would also be expected to put the cost of living crisis and defence spending at the centre of his agenda.
Allies and Skeptics
Burnham allies in Scotland include Sarwar, who was an MP with the mayor in the 2010-2015 Westminster group. Edinburgh South MP Ian Murray is another pal, having been in the parliamentary football team with the Everton-daft politician. Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander's future in the Cabinet would be less certain if Burnham takes over. In the 2010 UK Labour leadership contest, in which Burnham was a candidate, Alexander ran his rival David Miliband's campaign.
Another Scottish Labour figure cautioned against getting too excited about Burnham becoming PM. He said the same right wing media and social media "machine" could chew and spit out Burnham in the same way as has happened to Starmer. Another source questioned whether the newly-elected Makerfield MP can turn rhetoric into delivery on a national level. Starmer beat the Tories and his place in history is secure.
But his time as Prime Minister is up and the Age of Burnham is edging closer.
