Net migration to the UK fell to 171,000 last year, down from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, according to government figures published on Thursday. The continued decline was driven by a 47% drop in arrivals from outside the EU for work, the Office for National Statistics reported.
However, research by the thinktank British Future reveals a significant gap between reality and public perception. Two-thirds of those with sceptical views on immigration believe net migration increased in 2025, compared with 37% of those with more liberal views. Six in ten people who want lower immigration think numbers are still rising.
The study also found widespread misperceptions about the composition of immigration. People estimate that asylum seekers account for 33% of arrivals, when the true figure is about 9%. They believe students make up 24%, when in reality they represent just over half of all immigration.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said the perception gap was shaping politics: “It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down.” He called for a conversation on managing the pressures and gains of migration.
Political responses to the fall in net migration have been mixed. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged the drop but said the government would go further, while shadow home secretary Chris Philp argued more action was needed. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage falsely claimed the decline was due to British emigration, not fewer arrivals. Immigration is now the third most important issue for voters, behind the cost of living and the NHS.
