Airports have warned that jet fuel could run short within three weeks in Europe if oil supplies do not resume through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over flight cancellations in the UK and EU ahead of the summer holiday season. The warning came from Airports Council International (ACI) Europe, which wrote to the EU's energy and transport commissioners, stating that the bloc is three weeks away from shortages.
Jet fuel prices have soared since the end of February after US and Israeli attacks on Iran, with global prices more than doubling year-on-year to $1,650 a tonne. Europe has sourced over 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, with more than 40% shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's effective closure of the strait has forced European buyers to compete with Asia for alternative cargoes.
Rico Luman, a senior economist at ING, said that some airlines might be forced to cancel flights within weeks as fuel reserves run down, particularly at smaller airports. He noted that typical reserves cover only four to five weeks, and airlines would likely cut less popular leisure routes first. Smaller UK airlines have already cancelled some flights, including Skybus and Aurigny.
Ryanair's chief executive Michael O'Leary said the airline is considering cutting 10% of its flights. A UK government spokesperson said British aircraft have not reported any disruption and are operating as normal, adding that they are engaging with carriers to support operations.
The last cargo of European jet fuel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before the war is due to arrive in Copenhagen, while the final tanker destined for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday. The global market for jet fuel has been particularly exposed to the disruption because alternative pipeline routes are not available for jet fuel.
