Rishi Sunak's authority is facing its most serious challenge yet as Conservative MPs from the right of his party have declared they will not support the government's emergency Rwanda legislation. The Prime Minister's flagship asylum policy now hangs in the balance ahead of a critical parliamentary vote.
Conservative Civil War Erupts Over Asylum Plan
The European Research Group (ERG), along with other influential Tory factions, has delivered a devastating verdict on the Safety of Rwanda Bill, stating it contains "fundamental flaws" that leave it "incomplete and ineffective". In a dramatic move that could determine the bill's fate, these groups have recommended their members vote against the legislation.
ERG chairman Mark Francois didn't mince words, telling reporters: "We have given it our collective consideration and we cannot support the bill. We will be recommending that colleagues vote against it."
What's Causing the Tory Rebellion?
The rebel MPs argue the legislation doesn't go far enough to prevent legal challenges that have previously grounded deportation flights. Their concerns centre on several key issues:
- The bill allows individuals to continue bringing legal claims against their removal to Rwanda
- It fails to fully disapply the Human Rights Act in Rwanda cases
- European Court of Human Rights injunctions could still block flights
- The legislation doesn't provide the "watertight" solution promised
Number Crunch: Sunak's Mathematical Nightmare
With Labour and other opposition parties united against the bill, Sunak can only afford to lose 28 Tory MPs before the legislation fails. Current estimates suggest between 30 and 40 Conservative MPs might rebel, creating a potential parliamentary defeat that would represent a massive blow to the Prime Minister's authority.
The so-called "Five Families" of Tory right-wing groups - including the ERG, New Conservatives, and Common Sense Group - have all expressed significant concerns about the legislation's effectiveness.
What Happens Next?
The government faces a critical decision point. Downing Street could attempt to amend the bill to placate rebels, though this risks alienating more moderate One Nation Conservatives who have warned against breaking international law.
Home Secretary James Cleverly insisted the bill represents the "strongest possible legislation" that allows the government to "get flights off the ground". However, rebel MPs remain unconvinced, with one describing the current version as "a complete and utter waste of time".
The stage is set for a dramatic parliamentary showdown that could define Sunak's premiership and determine the future of the UK's immigration policy.
