Starmer's Flagship Returns Scheme Falls Short of Targets
Newly released data has exposed a significant shortfall in the performance of Sir Keir Starmer's flagship 'one in, one out' returns agreement with France. The scheme, which launched in August 2025, is currently returning just twelve migrants per week to France, a figure dramatically lower than the initial projection of fifty weekly removals that was briefed to media outlets.
Since the pilot programme began last summer, a total of 377 individuals have been deported back to France under the controversial arrangement. In exchange, 380 migrants have been permitted to apply for asylum in the United Kingdom from French territory. This represents an average of approximately twelve returns each week, falling well short of the government's stated ambitions.
Mounting Legal Challenges Threaten Scheme's Future
The pilot programme now faces considerable disruption from a fresh wave of legal claims filed by migrants contesting the lawfulness of the entire returns deal. More than a dozen individuals, including some who have already been deported to France, have launched a joint claim at the High Court arguing the scheme operates unlawfully.
Their legal challenge centres on several key allegations: that French authorities fail to adequately support victims of human trafficking, that men in France do not receive equivalent assistance to women and children, and that the Home Office is improperly blocking migrants from contesting decisions regarding their modern slavery claims. The High Court will examine the lawfulness of the scheme's operation at a future hearing.
Recent court proceedings revealed that, as of the end of January 2026, forty percent of migrants detained under the returns agreement have made trafficking claims. In a separate development this week, a High Court judge reportedly halted the removal of a thirty-one-year-old Eritrean trafficking victim to France over concerns about access to accommodation and healthcare support in the country.
Channel Crossings Continue Despite Returns Policy
Despite Prime Minister Starmer's assertion last summer that the scheme would demonstrate to potential migrants that attempting the Channel crossing "will be in vain," thousands of asylum seekers have continued to risk their lives on the dangerous journey. In the past seven days alone, 721 individuals arrived in the UK via small boats.
Government statistics show the number of people arriving in Britain on small boats increased by thirteen percent year-on-year to 45,774, though this remains below the peak recorded in 2022. Small boat migrants accounted for forty-one percent of all asylum claims last year, with Eritreans representing the most common nationality among those making the perilous Channel crossing.
Additional Home Office data reveals migrants are now attempting the crossing in larger vessels, with winter months last year seeing an average of seventy-one people per dinghy. Meanwhile, thirty-nine percent of asylum seekers entered the UK legally via visas or other authorised routes before claiming sanctuary.
Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged the mounting legal pressures at the end of last year, stating his desire to "ramp up" the returns agreement despite "the legal challenges that have been piling in on us." The future of the policy now hangs in the balance as both its effectiveness and legality face unprecedented scrutiny.
