Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has unveiled a radical overhaul of Britain's asylum system that critics warn could burden an already strained bureaucracy while handing political advantage to right-wing opponents.
The Danish Model and Its Consequences
Ms Mahmood's proposal would replace the current system where refugees receive five-year residency rights with a new approach granting only 30-month initial stays. Refugees would face status reviews every two and a half years, with permanent settlement only possible after two decades in Britain.
The government points to Denmark as its inspiration, where a centre-left administration adopted similar measures amid pressure from populist right parties. However, the Danish experiment produced troubling outcomes: Syrian refugees stripped of protection couldn't be deported, leaving them trapped in deportation centres unable to work or live normal lives.
An Impossible Administrative Burden
The scale of Britain's proposed system dwarfs Denmark's experience. With approximately 100,000 asylum claims annually, the Home Office would need to conduct around 70,000 status reviews each year. The Refugee Council estimates this would require reviewing 1.4 million people by 2035 at a cost of £872 million.
This expansion comes as the existing system struggles with basic functions. Currently, 50,000 appeals languish in queues with wait times approaching one year, while tribunal judges remain in critically short supply.
A Political Minefield
Ms Mahmood has indicated she wants to reform rather than abandon the European Convention on Human Rights, distinguishing her approach from Conservative and Reform UK positions advocating complete withdrawal. However, meaningful changes cannot be made unilaterally, and any solo attempt risks damaging the Northern Ireland peace process and undermining post-Brexit agreements with the EU.
Meanwhile, Labour's attempt to outflank right-wing parties on immigration may backfire politically. By adopting hardline positions, the government allows Reform UK to drive the debate further rightward while potentially alienating progressive supporters.
A Simpler Solution Exists
There is a more straightforward approach to addressing the most visible asylum issue: clearing the asylum hotels. The Refugee Council notes that 40% of hotel residents come from just five countries - Sudan, Eritrea, Iran, Afghanistan and Syria - where asylum grant rates range from 60% to 98%.
A one-off permission scheme with security checks, similar to what Rishi Sunak implemented in 2023, could rapidly empty the hotels without engaging in a damaging political arms race. This would solve the single asylum issue the public cares most about while avoiding the creation of a massive new bureaucracy.
As the government moves forward with its plans, it faces the dual challenge of implementing an administratively complex system while defending against accusations that it's copying far-right cruelty rather than developing humane, workable solutions.
