NCA Chief Warns Iran Conflict Could Increase Small Boat Arrivals
The director general of the National Crime Agency, Graeme Biggar, has issued a stark warning that the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran is likely to increase the number of small boat arrivals on British shores. Delivering his annual assessment of threats facing the United Kingdom, Biggar stated that global conflicts typically drive organised immigration crime, with the Middle East tensions presenting a particular challenge.
Immigration Crime and Channel Crossings
"Migrant demand to reach the UK unlawfully continues to be high, and the conflict in Iran is likely to increase the challenge," Biggar declared during his speech at the NCA headquarters in Stratford. He elaborated that while he does not anticipate an "absolutely massive increase" directly from Iran, some of the additional migration pressure would manifest through small boats crossing the English Channel.
The NCA's data reveals that small boat arrivals increased by 13 percent year-on-year in 2025, with 45,774 individuals making the perilous journey to claim asylum. Historically, most arrivals originated from the Horn of Africa, shifting from previous peaks involving asylum seekers from Albania and Vietnam.
Combating organised immigration crime constitutes a quarter of the NCA's operational workload. Last year alone, officers seized 533 boats or engines in efforts to disrupt smuggling networks profiting from these dangerous crossings.
Synthetic Opioids and Drug Death Crisis
Alongside immigration concerns, Biggar highlighted the devastating impact of synthetic opioids, particularly nitazenes, which have been linked to approximately 1,000 deaths in the UK over two and a half years. These potent substances, some up to 500 times stronger than morphine, are frequently smuggled through postal systems and found in adulterated heroin or counterfeit pills sold online.
"Synthetic opioids pose the biggest risk. Since nitazenes first appeared at scale in the UK in June 2023, they have been connected to 1,000 deaths. This is an extraordinary figure," Biggar emphasised. Although nitazene-related deaths slightly decreased to 359 in 2025 from 435 in 2024, he cautioned that true numbers might be higher due to inadequate testing capabilities.
Drug-related fatalities have doubled over the past decade, with cocaine-linked deaths increasing tenfold. Ketamine misuse is also surging dramatically, evidenced by a tenfold rise in adults seeking treatment for ketamine use over ten years.
Sophisticated Smuggling Techniques
Criminal networks are employing increasingly advanced methods to traffic drugs, including chemically bonding substances to materials like charcoal, cardboard, plastic, or glue. In some instances, chemists are flown internationally to bond drugs such as cocaine and nitazenes, then extract them at their destination.
"While we need to respond to a range of new challenges, we cannot take our eyes off the drug threat," Biggar asserted. "It has always caused a lot of harm, it is evolving fast, and we need to stay on top of it."
Technology Reshaping Criminal Activity
Biggar warned that technology is accelerating crime, enabling offenders to become "smarter, faster and more connected, to each other and to victims." He noted that developments in technology are fundamentally "reshaping crime itself," as demonstrated by recent cyber attacks on major organisations including Transport for London, Marks and Spencer, and Jaguar Land Rover.
These incidents underscore that securing systems alone is insufficient; businesses must also address how staff can be manipulated by cyber criminals.
Government Response
In response to the NCA's annual assessment, Security Minister Dan Jarvis stated: "The threat from serious and organised crime is rapidly evolving, with criminals collaborating across borders and online to target the British public at scale. As they step up their activity, so must we."
He outlined government efforts, including "a major international effort to take down smuggling gangs, and hitting drug traffickers harder than ever, through tougher port controls and record drug seizures."
The NCA's comprehensive threat assessment paints a concerning picture of evolving criminal challenges, from geopolitical conflicts influencing migration patterns to technologically advanced drug smuggling networks causing unprecedented harm across British communities.
