The Welsh Senedd election has become a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with Labour's long-standing dominance appearing to crumble. At the Plaid Cymru conference in February, the atmosphere among delegates and supporters was jubilant, fueled by recent polls showing the Welsh nationalists as frontrunners for the May elections. This could end almost 30 years of Labour rule in Wales.
Plaid Cymru's Warning on Reform UK
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has struck a defiant tone, emphasising that the main challenge is not from Labour but from Nigel Farage's Reform UK. He described the contest as a 'two-horse race' and warned voters about the rise of the populist right. 'I think we need to be honest that we're facing a global phenomenon here, the growth of the populist right – it's something that is causing challenges from Trump in America to countries across Europe. It's important we recognise that we're not immune from that,' he said.
Mr ap Iorwerth highlighted the threat to Welsh nationhood and democracy posed by Reform UK, noting their ambiguous stance on devolution. 'While Reform might say today that they accept devolution, we know that they have no loyalty to devolution. It's the kind of politics that will change on a whim,' he added.
Reform UK's Confusing Stance on Devolution
Reform UK's position on devolution has been inconsistent. In September, their first Senedd politician suggested the party had not ruled out scrapping the Welsh parliament. Mr Farage later dismissed this, but a spokesperson reiterated they 'would not rule anything out.' In contrast, Plaid Cymru has consistently campaigned for pro-independence and further devolved powers since its formation in 1925. Mr ap Iorwerth has pledged to push for more devolved powers if elected as first minister.
A New Leadership for Wales
Speaking at the conference, Mr ap Iorwerth called for a reset in the relationship between Cardiff and Westminster. 'The fact that Wales could be on the cusp of rejecting Labour in a dramatic way after a century or more of domination tells you that something has happened, a penny has dropped in the minds of people's attitude towards Wales,' he said. He stressed that his loyalty lies with the people of Wales, not with a boss in London, and that the lack of transparency between the first minister and the Labour prime minister is holding Wales back.
Previously, Plaid Cymru worked alongside the Welsh Labour government in co-operation agreements but withdrew from its most recent partnership in 2024.
Canvassing and Public Response
Dr Dewi Jones, a prosecution expert in the Lucy Letby case, has been canvassing for Plaid Cymru and noted a positive response. 'We have had people repeat the slogan 'a new leadership for Wales' – that's when you know the message is getting out,' he said.
Mr ap Iorwerth has outlined his ambitions for the first 100 days in power, vowing to improve education and healthcare, and bring back a Welsh Development Agency to support businesses. Wales is currently the poorest of the UK nations, with a 2025 Joseph Rowntree Foundation report finding 22 per cent of its population living in poverty, with the cost of living a key concern for voters.
Immigration as a Battleground
Despite immigration policy being reserved to Westminster, it remains a key issue. Reform's Welsh leader Dan Thomas has pledged to end Wales' Nation of Sanctuary status, despite 91 per cent of its funding going to Ukrainian refugees. Mr ap Iorwerth criticised Reform's approach, saying, 'We know that people have been made to believe that easy answers on immigration will solve all our ills but this is based on the politics of disinformation. I don't believe in unlimited open borders, every country controls its borders, successive UK governments have made a mess in dealing with migration.' He added that Plaid Cymru stands for decency, hope, and humanity.
Labour's Decline and Historic Opportunity
Fringe events at the conference included talks on migration within Wales, while clashes with Reform on immigration are believed to have contributed to Plaid Cymru's success in the October Caerphilly by-election. Latest YouGov projections indicate Labour's vote share could fall to just 13 per cent, with only 12 seats predicted. More in Common's MRP poll suggests 24 seats for Labour, still far behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and well short of the 49 needed for a majority.
Darren Price, a Plaid Cymru councillor in Carmarthenshire, described the positive mood among members. 'There's a positive feeling, it's been obvious since the autumn that we're building up towards something historic we hope. I also think we've been careful not to think it's a done deal,' he said. Addressing undecided voters, he stated: 'There is only one party on the ballot paper that has the interests of Wales at its centre. Everyone else on the ballot is a London party. Devolution is real and if we want devolution to work, we need to vote for Plaid Cymru.'
