Reform UK Support Declines in Latest Holyrood Election Poll
Support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK has experienced a notable decline in the most recent Holyrood election poll, with the party sliding to third place on the constituency vote and fourth on the regional list. The proportion of Scottish voters prepared to back the party has diminished since the appointment of its Scottish leader, former Tory peer Lord Malcolm Offord.
Labour's Resurgence Amid Leadership Tensions
In contrast, backing for Scottish Labour has increased since its leader Anas Sarwar called for the resignation of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, propelling the party back into second place. The SNP remains ahead, although its support levels fall significantly short of the 2021 Holyrood election results, according to the new Ipsos poll of 1,096 Scottish adults conducted from February 19 to 25.
Two in every five voters surveyed indicated they might still change their minds ahead of polling day on May 7, highlighting the fluid nature of the political landscape.
Detailed Polling Figures and Analysis
On the constituency vote, Reform UK slid to 16 per cent, marking a two percentage point decrease from the last Ipsos poll in late November. On the regional list vote, Reform dropped to fourth place with 14 per cent, a three percentage point decline from the previous survey.
This downturn occurred following Lord Offord's appointment as Scottish leader in January and his announcement of the party's first major Scottish election policies. These policies included £2 billion in immediate income tax cuts and a commitment to oppose another independence referendum within the next decade.
Labour secured second place on both votes, with its regional list support rising by one percentage point to 19 per cent and its constituency support increasing by four percentage points to 20 per cent. This rise in support came in the aftermath of Anas Sarwar's unsuccessful attempt to oust Sir Keir Starmer from leadership.
Party Reactions and Strategic Positioning
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 'The SNP have most reason to be pleased with these new results, which show them maintaining their polling lead two months out from the Holyrood election. While Scottish Labour's constituency vote share has increased slightly compared with three months ago, Labour also look more vulnerable than either the SNP or Reform UK to their voters switching to support other parties. With four in ten voters saying they may change their minds, much may still shift once the parties begin their election campaigns later this month.'
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie stated: 'Scotland is being let down by a tired SNP government that can no longer get the basics right. It's clear that only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP and fix their mess – restoring our NHS, improving our schools, tackling the housing emergency and making communities safer. Reform has no answers to the challenges we face and no chance of beating the SNP. The choice Scotland faces in just over nine weeks is more of the same with John Swinney and the SNP or a better future with Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour.'
Comprehensive Poll Results and Projections
The Ipsos poll placed the SNP at 26 per cent on the regional list, a two percentage point decrease from November, with Labour at 19 per cent (up one), the Greens at 16 per cent (down one), Reform at 14 per cent (down three), the Conservatives at 11 per cent (down one), and the Liberal Democrats at 10 per cent (up three), with others at three per cent.
On the constituency vote, the SNP stands at 36 per cent (up one), Labour at 20 per cent (up four), Reform at 16 per cent (down two), Lib Dems at 10 per cent (up one), Conservatives at nine per cent (down two), Greens at seven per cent (down two), with others at two per cent.
According to a seat projection based on these results, it is estimated that the SNP would secure 60 MSPs, followed by Labour with 20, the Greens with 16, Reform with 13, and the Conservatives and Lib Dems with 10 each.
Additional Party Statements and Outlook
A Scottish Conservative spokesman remarked: 'This poll confirms how crucial it is for voters across Scotland to use their peach ballot paper to vote for the Scottish Conservatives and help stop an SNP majority. That is the best way people can ensure Holyrood's focus will be on bringing down people's bills and growing Scotland's economy, rather than the nationalists spending the next five years pushing their independence obsession.'
SNP campaign director Angus Robertson added: 'This is yet another poll that shows Scottish voters are putting their faith in John Swinney's strong leadership – momentum is firmly with the SNP. While the Westminster parties tear themselves apart over scandal and infighting, the SNP is on Scotland's side, delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland. Our NHS is starting to turn a corner under our plan, and the SNP Scottish Government offers the best cost of living support package available on these islands – that's the difference John Swinney's focussed leadership brings.'
Reform UK was approached for comment but did not provide a statement at the time of reporting.
