Local elections in May are expected to be defined by a clash of negative sentiments, with voters motivated more by opposition to a party than support for one. According to polling by More in Common, 38% of Britons would vote against Reform UK, up nine points since November, making it the most unpopular party ahead of Labour on 34%. The shift reflects growing hostility towards Nigel Farage's party, even as Labour faces its own backlash over immigration and other issues.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, said tactical voting discussions are unusually widespread. In the Gorton and Denton by-election, progressive voters sought the best 'stop Reform' choice, while in areas like Essex, voters on the right backed Reform to 'punish Labour' over migration failures. This 'anyone but' dynamic is expected to shape the May elections for over 5,000 councillors and six mayors in England, as well as Scottish and Welsh devolved contests.
Despite Reform's plateau in polls, the party's leader Nigel Farage generates strong ill feeling, comparable to that towards Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics noted that tactical voting against Reform is not universal, with Labour vulnerable to Greens and the Workers Party in inner cities, while Reform could win big where its support is concentrated.
The fragmentation of the two-party system continues, with Labour and the Conservatives accounting for only 57% of votes in the 2024 general election, the lowest on record. Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester said voters are sending a clear message to 'legacy parties' that they are dissatisfied, but the ultimate direction of this sentiment remains uncertain.
