Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that Vladimir Putin could declare a massive new mobilisation within weeks, following Russia's parliamentary elections on September 20. The retired general believes the Kremlin is under mounting pressure from Ukraine's sustained drone strikes and heavy battlefield losses, with Russia suffering approximately 30,000 casualties each month.
Putin's Mobilisation Window
Speaking to The Telegraph, President Pavel said: "Russia will have parliamentary elections in September. President Putin will hardly declare mobilisation before, but once the elections are over, then the window will shrink." He suggested Ukraine faces a two-month deadline to revive peace talks before Russia could significantly expand its military campaign.
The Czech leader added: "I believe that the window is there for us to keep pushing and giving Russia a clear message that we are willing to start negotiations." He claimed Russia is buckling under growing pressure, with "the Russian public turning increasingly against the war."
Ukraine's Drone Campaign
Ukraine has been intensifying drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, hitting key oil facilities and triggering a fuel crisis. The attacks are part of a strategy to create conditions where Russia will be more inclined to negotiate. Pavel believes sustained Ukrainian attacks would "create conditions where Russia will be more inclined to negotiate."
Russian Casualties and Economic Strain
Russia's tally of fatalities and wounded soldiers is estimated at around 30,000 each month. Reports from the frontline have suggested some Russian soldiers survive only minutes after entering combat, highlighting the relentless intensity of the conflict. The war, which began with Russia's unlawful invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has also taken a severe economic toll on Russia.
A Gallup poll conducted between March and May found that a record-high 60% of Russians said their local economic conditions are worsening, with only 27% reporting improvement. This is the first time since 2006 that a majority of Russian adults have said the economy is getting worse, compared to 45% in 2020 and 50% in 2021 during the Covid pandemic.
Pressure on Putin
Pavel noted that the Russian leader may find it increasingly difficult to "keep calm at home" as pressure mounts. The Kremlin has been diverting resources to defence at the expense of citizens, who increasingly struggle to afford basic goods. With parliamentary elections approaching, analysts suggest Putin is unlikely to announce mobilisation before the vote to avoid public backlash, but may act soon after.
