The Makerfield by-election is taking place today, Thursday 18 June, and could have significant implications for the future of UK politics. Labour candidate Andy Burnham is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer's leadership if he secures victory.
When Will the Result Be Announced?
Polls are open from 7am to 10pm. Once voting ends, the count will begin shortly after 10pm on Thursday evening. The results are anticipated in the early hours of Friday morning, likely around 4am or 5am.
Background of the By-Election
The by-election was triggered in May when Josh Simons, the previous Makerfield MP, resigned his seat to allow Andy Burnham the opportunity to return to Westminster. Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, previously served as the Labour MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017 and held several cabinet positions, including Secretary of State for Health.
Candidates Standing
Fourteen candidates are contesting the seat. Key candidates include:
- Andy Burnham (Labour) – The former MP and current Mayor of Greater Manchester, who would need to step down as Mayor if elected.
- Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) – A plumber and army reservist who contested the seat in the 2024 general election. His social media history has faced scrutiny.
- Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain) – A local businesswoman, aged 53, whose party could split the right-wing vote.
- Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats)
- Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
- Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party)
- John Alfred Dyer (Independent)
- Ed Gemmell (Climate Party)
- Paul Richard Gould (Independent)
- Alan 'Howlin' Laud Hope (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
- Robert Pownall (Independent)
- Sarah Wakefield (Green Party)
- Peter Ward (Rejoin EU)
- Michael Winstanley (Conservative Party)
Polls and Odds
Recent polling by Opinium for Forward Democracy suggests Labour leads with 46% of the vote, followed by Reform UK at 41% and Restore Britain at 7%. The Green Party, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats are trailing. Betting odds favour Labour, with Andy Burnham at 1/4, Reform at 3/1, and Restore Britain around 20/1.
What This Means for UK Politics
If Burnham wins, he is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. Sir Keir has stated he will not step down and intends to fight any challenge, potentially offering Burnham a cabinet position. Leadership rival Wes Streeting has indicated he could trigger a contest next week.
