Vietnam's military has been secretly planning for a potential United States invasion for five decades, according to a revealing new report that exposes a stark contradiction in Hanoi's foreign policy approach. This comes despite the Southeast Asian nation elevating its diplomatic relationship with Washington to the highest level just last year.
Internal Document Reveals Deep-Seated Fears
An internal Vietnamese military document, completed by the Ministry of Defence in August 2024 and titled "The 2nd US Invasion Plan", has been analysed by human rights organisation The 88 Project. The document characterises the United States as a "belligerent" power and outlines preparations for a potential American "war of aggression".
Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and author of the analysis, stated there is "a consensus here across the government and across different ministries. This isn't just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government."
The Invasion Plan Details
The Vietnamese military document suggests that while seeking to strengthen deterrence against China, "the US and its allies are ready to apply unconventional forms of warfare and military intervention and even conduct large-scale invasions against countries and territories that 'deviate from its orbit.'"
While noting that "currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam", the planners write that "due to the US's belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from 'creating a pretext' to launch an invasion of our country."
Dual Approach to Foreign Relations
This revelation creates a striking contrast with Vietnam's public diplomatic posture. In 2023, President Joe Biden signed a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" with Vietnam, elevating relations between the nations to their highest diplomatic level, placing Washington on par with Moscow and Beijing as "trusted partners with a friendship grounded in mutual respect".
However, the 2024 military document reveals Vietnamese planners believe the US wants to "spread and impose its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion" to gradually change the country's socialist government.
Historical Context and Contemporary Concerns
Vietnamese military analysts outline what they see as a progression over three American administrations – from Barack Obama, through Donald Trump's first term, and into Joe Biden's presidency – with Washington increasingly pursuing military and other relationships with Asian nations to "form a front against China".
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, noted that the Vietnamese military still has "a very long memory" of the war with the US that ended in 1975. While Western diplomats have tended to see Hanoi as most concerned by possible Chinese aggression, the document reinforces other policy papers suggesting leaders' biggest fear is that of a "colour revolution".
Political Tensions Within Vietnam
Nguyen Khac Giang, of Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute research centre, said the plans highlight tensions within Vietnam's political leadership, where the Communist Party's conservative, military-aligned faction has long been preoccupied with external threats to the regime.
"The military has never been too comfortable moving ahead with the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States," the researcher explained.
These tensions spilled into the public realm in June 2024, when the US-linked Fulbright University was accused of fomenting a "colour revolution" by an army TV report. The Foreign Ministry defended the university, which US and Vietnamese officials had highlighted when the two countries upgraded ties.
Economic Balancing Act
China is Vietnam's largest two-way trade partner, while the US is its largest export market, meaning Hanoi needs to perform a delicate balancing act in maintaining diplomatic and economic ties while hedging its strategic bets.
"Even some of the more progressive leaders look at the United States, saying, 'Yes, they like us, they're working with us, they are good partners for now, but given the opportunity if there were a color revolution, the Americans would support it,'" Mr Abuza said.
Recent Developments and Future Uncertainties
Under Vietnamese leader To Lam, who became Communist Party general secretary at around the same time the document was written, the country has moved to strengthen ties with the US, especially under Donald Trump's administration. Mr Lam was reappointed general secretary last month and is expected to also assume the presidency, which would make him the country's most powerful figure in decades.
With Mr Lam at the helm, Mr Trump's family business has broken ground on a $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort and luxury real estate project in northern Hung Yen province. The Vietnamese leader almost immediately accepted Mr Trump's invitation to join the Board of Peace, an unusually swift decision given that foreign policy moves are typically calibrated with close attention to Beijing's possible reaction.
However, Mr Trump's military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has given Vietnamese conservatives fresh justification for their unease about closer ties with Washington. Any US military action involving Hanoi's ally Cuba could upset Vietnam's strategic balance, Mr Giang added.
"Cuba is very sensitive," he said. "If something happens in Cuba, it will send shock waves through Vietnam's political elites. Many of them have very strong, intimate ties with Cuba."
Official Responses and Strategic Implications
Vietnam's Foreign Ministry did not answer emails seeking comment on The 88 Project report or the document it highlighted. The US State Department refused to comment directly on the "2nd US Invasion Plan", but stressed the new partnership agreement, saying it "promotes prosperity and security for the United States and Vietnam".
"A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits our two countries and helps ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains stable, secure, free and open," the State Department said.
Mr Swanton wrote in his analysis that "The 2nd US Invasion Plan provides one of the most clear-eyed insights yet into Vietnam's foreign policy. It shows that far from viewing the US as a strategic partner, Hanoi sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its anti-China alliance."
