A classified Vietnamese military assessment, secretly drafted in August 2024 and recently leaked by human rights organisation Project88, reveals that Hanoi's defence establishment has been preparing for potential conflict with the United States despite the two nations upgrading their diplomatic relationship.
Secret War Planning Amid Diplomatic Upgrades
The document, titled 'The 2nd US Invasion Plan' and compiled by Vietnam's Ministry of Defence, presents a stark contrast to the public diplomatic progress marked by the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership announced during former US President Joe Biden's visit to Hanoi in September 2023. This partnership represented the highest level of diplomatic ties between the nations since relations normalised in 1995.
According to the leaked assessment, Vietnamese military planners privately regard the United States as a hostile 'belligerent' power rather than a strategic partner. The document suggests Hanoi views Washington as a rogue state preoccupied with regime change that might invade Vietnam should the country refuse to join its anti-China coalition.
Strategic Suspicion and Regional Concerns
The assessment warns that the United States could seek to undermine Communist Party rule through support for what it terms a 'colour revolution' - similar to pro-democracy uprisings witnessed in post-Soviet states. Furthermore, the document expresses concern that America and its allies could exploit Vietnam's extensive coastline and maritime geography in any future conflict.
'While there is currently little risk of a war against Vietnam, due to the US's belligerent nature, we need to be vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from creating a pretext to launch a war of aggression against our country,' the document states according to Project88.
It continues: 'The US and its allies could fully exploit the geographic and natural features of Vietnam's vast seas and long coastlines, with the superior strength of its navy, to conduct military operations against our country.'
Analysis of US Indo-Pacific Strategy
The leaked plan provides detailed analysis of American strategic objectives in the region, suggesting Hanoi views the US presence as provocative rather than welcome. According to the document, the goals of Washington's Indo-Pacific Strategy include:
- Limiting China's regional dominance
- Creating a Western-aligned economic bloc
- Securing critical trade routes
- Increasing NATO and EU involvement in the region
The assessment notes that this threatening posture intensified during Donald Trump's first presidential term, when his administration increased military deployments to the region and what Vietnamese planners perceived as inciting an arms race.
Internal Power Dynamics and Verification
Project88 co-director Ben Swanton emphasised the significance of the document's origins, stating: 'There's a consensus here across the government and across different ministries. This isn't just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government.'
The human rights group obtained the plan from what it describes as a reliable source and independently verified its authenticity. The document is divided into two main sections: the first provides an overview of the Asia-Pacific's strategic importance and US responses to China's rise, while the second describes US militarisation of the region and outlines various scenarios involving US-led assaults on Vietnam.
Diplomatic Analysis and Historical Context
Regarding political and diplomatic dimensions, the plan asserts that the United States has shifted from a Cold War mentality of containing countries 'with different ambitions' to building relationships whose primary objective is to 'form a front against China'. This strategy allegedly involves using political, diplomatic, and media pressure as 'instruments of influence' while exploiting disputes involving Taiwan, ASEAN, and China.
The document suggests Vietnamese analysts believe America, in seeking to counter China's growing influence, was prepared to use 'unconventional forms of warfare and military intervention' and even 'large-scale invasions' against countries that 'deviate from its orbit'.
'Hanoi sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its anti-China alliance,' Swanton wrote in his analysis, adding that the plan fundamentally challenges over a decade of US policy that has sought to court Vietnam into such an alliance while overlooking human rights concerns.
Internal Tensions and Regional Implications
The leaked document also sheds light on internal power struggles within Vietnam, highlighting tensions between reform-minded officials and a conservative, military-aligned faction of the Communist Party that remains focused on external threats to the regime.
Nguyen Khac Giang from Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute told The Times: 'The military has never been too comfortable moving ahead with the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States.'
Project88's analysis further argues that Washington's push to strengthen security ties in Asia and build a coalition to counter Beijing may have increased suspicion in Hanoi, with Vietnamese planners identifying what they perceive as an increasingly confrontational US strategy across successive administrations.
The report notes that despite closer diplomatic engagement, Vietnam has intensified domestic repression in recent years while Western governments have prioritised strategic competition with China over human rights concerns. According to Project88, this dynamic has reinforced Hanoi's suspicion of American intentions, creating a complex diplomatic landscape where public partnership coexists with private military preparation for potential conflict.
