The United States is weighing a significant expansion of sanctions against both the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), signalling frustration with the inability of US envoy Massad Boulos to broker a ceasefire. The move comes as Donald Trump's administration acknowledges that months of diplomatic pressure have failed to end the conflict, which has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions.
Last week, Trump announced that work had begun to end the war after a personal request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, Boulos, Trump's son-in-law, has been trying for months to persuade both sides to agree to a truce with little success. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a cabinet meeting that Trump was "the only leader in the world capable of resolving the Sudan crisis," though an Arab diplomat cautioned that momentum alone would not suffice.
The war, now in its second year, has created the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The UN reports at least 40,000 deaths, though rights groups say the toll is higher, and over 14 million people have been displaced. Since the RSF captured the city of Bara in North Kordofan on 25 October, at least 269 civilians have been killed in aerial strikes, shelling, and summary executions, according to the UN human rights chief.
Norway's foreign ministry is preparing to host a broad range of Sudanese civil society in Oslo to map out the restoration of civilian government. Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik visited Port Sudan last week, warning that without a ceasefire "the country will continue to fragment." The so-called quad of the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt had proposed a three-month humanitarian truce in September, but the army rejected it, accusing the group of bias, while the RSF pretended to accept but continued fighting.
Geopolitical complexities remain: the UAE backs the RSF, while Saudi Arabia and Egypt support the army. Trump's threat to designate the Muslim Brotherhood a foreign terrorist organisation could weaken the army, which has historic ties to the movement. Meanwhile, the US may also extend the arms embargo on Darfur and target UAE-based firms linked to the conflict. The army has been accused of considering a port lease to Russia and using chemical weapons, though it denies the latter.
