The second day of US-led peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia concluded in Abu Dhabi on Thursday without a significant breakthrough towards ending Europe's deadliest conflict since the Second World War. However, the discussions yielded a rare concrete outcome: a reciprocal exchange of 157 prisoners of war from each side.
Substantive Engagement Amid Ongoing Stalemate
These meetings marked the most substantive engagement between senior delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in months, pointing to a tentative, if uncertain, revival of diplomatic efforts nearly four years into the war. Thursday's session lasted three hours, following a trilateral negotiation on Wednesday that ran for approximately five and a half hours.
Positive Tone from Both Sides
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's presidential office, described the trilateral negotiations as "genuinely constructive," thanking the United States and the United Arab Emirates for their mediation role. Russia's representative, Kirill Dmitriev, similarly struck a positive note, citing progress and "forward movement" in discussions on ending the hostilities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later confirmed that peace talks would continue in the near future. Both nations sent senior military and intelligence officials to Abu Dhabi, signalling a more serious approach than during previous rounds when Moscow dispatched lower-level delegations.
US Involvement and Cautious Optimism
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted on Wednesday, "For the first time in a very long time, technical military teams from Ukraine and Russia are meeting in a format in which we are also participating." He added, "Progress is unlikely to become clear, even with information leaks, until a genuine breakthrough is achieved. Our objective is to remain committed to this process."
Despite the more positive diplomatic tone, Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's special envoy involved in the talks, cautioned that "significant work remains" in the weeks ahead, dampening expectations of any swift move towards peace.
Persistent Obstacles to a Viable Settlement
The prospects for a viable peace settlement remain uncertain, with Moscow continuing to push maximalist territorial demands. The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted that any agreement must include Ukraine first ceding the entire eastern Donbas region, including areas still under Ukrainian control.
Ukrainian officials have firmly rejected those terms, arguing instead for a ceasefire along the current frontline and ruling out any unilateral withdrawal of their forces from eastern Ukraine. There, a chain of heavily fortified cities forms one of Kyiv's strongest defensive lines.
Central Question of Compromise
A central question remains whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to compromise. Putin has repeatedly claimed Russia is winning the war and signalled he was prepared to prolong the fighting unless Ukraine accepted Moscow's draconian terms, which have also included a cap on Ukraine's military and a ban on western troops on its territory.
Hampered by freezing temperatures and stiff Ukrainian resistance, Moscow's advances on the battlefield this year have slowed markedly compared with the end of last year. Russian forces have nonetheless continued a campaign of sustained strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, plunging large parts of the country into prolonged blackouts and deepening the humanitarian toll.
Kyiv and its allies describe these attacks as an attempt to sap civilian morale, further complicating the path to a lasting peace agreement as diplomatic efforts inch forward in the UAE.
