Trump's Inconsistent Backing for Chagos Deal: A Rollercoaster Timeline
Just when Prime Minister Keir Starmer believed the path was clear, Donald Trump has once again publicly criticised the United Kingdom's agreement to transfer the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. This deal involves the UK relinquishing control of the Chagos archipelago while funding a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia under a 99-year lease. The US president has repeatedly alternated between endorsing and opposing this arrangement over the past year, creating uncertainty in transatlantic diplomacy.
Initial Support and Early Endorsements
In February 2025, during a high-stakes visit to the US, Starmer engaged in transatlantic talks that were widely seen as successful. Trump commented on the Chagos deal, stating, "We're going to have some discussions about that very soon, and I have a feeling it's going to work out very well." He added, "They're talking about a very long-term, powerful lease, a very strong lease, about 140 years actually. That's a long time, and I think we'll be inclined to go along with your country."
By April 2025, Trump formally approved the UK's handover, with Downing Street confirming the deal was being finalised after receiving his green light. In May 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a strong statement backing the agreement, praising the leadership of both the UK and Mauritius and emphasising the importance of Diego Garcia for regional security.
Sudden Reversals and Public Criticism
In January 2026, as tensions flared over Trump's remarks on Greenland, he launched his first public attack on the Chagos deal via Truth Social. He labelled the UK's plan as "an act of GREAT STUPIDITY" and suggested it demonstrated weakness that could be exploited by China and Russia. This post marked a significant shift, rocking the special relationship between the two nations.
However, by February 2026, Trump and Starmer held a phone conversation where they reportedly agreed on the deal's importance. Trump posted that discussions were "very productive" but reserved the right to militarily secure Diego Garcia if necessary. The White House press secretary reiterated US support while affirming the protection of American assets.
Final Fluctuations and Ongoing Uncertainty
The US State Department reaffirmed its backing for the deal in a statement on 17 February 2026, highlighting the desire for a bilateral agreement to ensure continued use of facilities. Yet, just one day later, Trump urged Starmer to abandon the agreement in another Truth Social post, arguing that leases are ineffective and warning against losing control of Diego Garcia. He cited potential threats from Iran and emphasised the need for strength in the face of global challenges.
This timeline illustrates the erratic nature of Trump's position, which has swung between support and opposition multiple times, leaving the future of the Chagos deal and US-UK relations in a state of flux. The repeated cycles of endorsement and withdrawal underscore the complexities of international agreements involving strategic military assets.
