Donald Trump, who has long styled himself as a master dealmaker, appears to be struggling to secure an agreement to end the conflict with Iran that he initiated. The self-proclaimed negotiator has been unable to finalise a deal that would allow him to claim victory and move past the war, which is causing global economic disruption and threatening Republican prospects in the US midterm elections. Analysts suggest that Iran now holds more leverage than it did before the conflict began, complicating Trump's efforts.
Over the Memorial Day weekend, Trump cancelled plans to attend his eldest son's wedding and to visit his New Jersey golf club, fuelling speculation that a deal was imminent. He announced a cabinet meeting at Camp David, a venue historically used for major diplomatic announcements, but the meeting was later moved back to the White House, indicating that no agreement had been reached. The delay highlights Trump's difficulty in closing a deal he could present with fanfare.
Trump's reluctance to appear weak, combined with his admiration for strongman leaders, has hindered progress. He is also wary of criticism that any new agreement might be less favourable than the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, from which he withdrew in 2018. By launching a war aimed at regime change, Trump has limited his options. According to his own principles in The Art of the Deal, appearing desperate is a critical mistake, yet Iran now has greater leverage, including control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over a fifth of the world's oil supply passes daily.
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf states, has disrupted the global economy and driven up oil prices. In the US, average petrol prices have risen by 50% since the war began. Despite six weeks of intensive bombing, Iran has maintained its blockade and continued missile strikes. A ceasefire was agreed on 8 April, but negotiations have stalled as Trump vacillates between pursuing a deal and threatening to resume hostilities. The emerging agreement is focused on resolving a crisis that did not exist before Trump started the war.
