A serious diplomatic rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the future of war-torn Yemen has escalated dramatically, raising fears of a new civil war within the country's south and a wider regional proxy conflict.
The Spark: A Southern Declaration of Independence
The immediate crisis stems from the actions of the UAE-backed separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council (STC). In late December, supporters of the STC rallied in Aden, waving flags of both the STC and the United Arab Emirates, signalling their allegiance. The STC, tapping into long-held grievances in the south, has never been content with a unified Yemen. This month, it seized its chance, sending forces into Hadramaut, the largest governorate, and subsequently taking al Mahra.
This eastward expansion means the STC now controls nearly all the territory of the former independent state of South Yemen, including its most productive oilfields. The move is a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia, which views Yemen as its strategic backyard and has long championed a unitary state under the UN-recognised, Riyadh-based government.
A Public Accusation and a "Red Line"
Saudi Arabia's response was swift and severe. Riyadh publicly accused its Gulf ally of threatening its national security, a remarkable breach in their usually united front. The accusation followed a Saudi airstrike on vehicles docking at the Yemeni port of Mukalla, which Riyadh stated were destined for the STC and had originated from an Emirati port.
"The Kingdom stresses that any threat to its national security is a red line," Saudi Arabia declared, vowing to take all necessary steps to neutralise such threats. For years, observers believed the UAE, often seen as the junior partner, would pressure the STC to seek greater autonomy within a federal Yemen rather than full independence. However, the UAE has not backed down.
A Proxy Battle with Wider Regional Stakes
Analysts warn this dispute extends far beyond Yemen's borders. Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, notes the conflict reflects "fundamental disagreements between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over the future political structure of Yemen and the balance of influence within it." The UAE, despite being geographically farther away, has pursued a more hands-on, interventionist policy.
The tensions risk spilling over into other regional flashpoints like Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where the two nations often support opposing sides. Furthermore, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in northern Yemen are likely watching with satisfaction as their former coalition adversaries turn on each other.
While Western governments, taking cues from Washington, have shown reluctance to publicly criticise the UAE, their sympathies lie with Saudi Arabia's aim of preserving a unified Yemeni state. The coming weeks will test whether this dangerous Gulf rift can be contained or if Yemen is set to become the primary theatre for a new power struggle between two of the region's wealthiest states.
