Putin Reaches Critical Age as Expert Outlines Five Potential End Scenarios
At 73 years old, Vladimir Putin has now reached the average age at which Russian leaders historically die, marking a pivotal moment for the country's longest-serving ruler since Joseph Stalin. With the clock ticking on his tenure, a prominent Russia specialist has unveiled the most probable conclusion to his reign in a comprehensive new analysis.
Death in Power Emerges as Most Likely Outcome
Dr John Kennedy, Head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at RAND Europe, has provided a stark assessment in the Daily Mail's Future Headlines series. Despite significant internal pressures stemming from Russia's troubled invasion of Ukraine, Kennedy contends that Putin will most likely die while still holding office.
"The most plausible scenario is that Putin dies in power, given that he's built a system with total loyalty at its centre," Kennedy explained to Foreign Correspondent David Averre. "Then there would have to be some very quick shuffling - the cadres would have to come together and bargain for power."
Systematic Control Makes Forced Removal Unlikely
Kennedy emphasised that despite Russia's economic decline since the invasion began and the staggering loss of nearly a million men, scenarios involving Putin being forcibly removed from power remain improbable. The expert pointed to Putin's meticulous installation of allies in all key positions of power, combined with the brutal suppression of dissent, as creating a virtually impenetrable system.
"Everybody is reliant on Putin," Kennedy stated. "He promotes his friends. All the cadres around Putin are former colleagues. He has totally centred power around himself and this has only intensified since the full scale invasion of Ukraine."
The analyst noted that even after the death of prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny, no significant popular movements against Putin have emerged at either party or regional levels, making deposition unlikely without substantial changes in circumstances.
Health Concerns Could Accelerate Timeline
Kennedy suggested that Putin's end might arrive sooner than many anticipate, citing credible reports of the Russian leader seeking alternative treatments for undisclosed health issues. "That could come sooner than many expect," Kennedy predicted, highlighting the potential impact of health factors on the timeline.
The expert observed that Putin is appearing in public less frequently, which could indicate illness, fatigue, or heightened paranoia - or possibly a combination of all three factors.
Regional Assassination Remains a Distinct Possibility
While dismissing the likelihood of Moscow's ruling elite turning against Putin, Kennedy identified regional factions as potential sources of assassination attempts. Much of Russia's army consists of conscripts from impoverished agricultural regions that have historically resisted Moscow's control, including Chechnya which fought two brutal independence wars.
"There is a really significant difference between life in Moscow and life in the various regions of Russia," Kennedy explained. "We know that many of Russia's regions are poor and their future outlook is not looking too rosy."
The diversion of resources toward the war effort could allow grievances to ferment and eventually surface, creating conditions where an assassination with regional dimensions becomes possible. "Over time, especially with the diversion of resources towards the war effort, a situation emerges that allows for grievances to ferment and at some point, come to the fore… an assassination could happen, and it could have a regional dimension to it," Kennedy elaborated.
Security Measures Versus Persistent Vulnerabilities
Despite Putin's well-documented obsession with personal security and reduced public appearances, Kennedy noted that vulnerabilities remain. "He is, however, a very secure president, as far as we know. Security services and the military all have a vested interest in protecting him," the expert acknowledged.
However, Kennedy added: "At the same time, assassinations do happen. He still has to visit Russia's allies and the regions - there will be opportunities. Do I think it's a likely scenario? It's no less likely than anything else. It's absolutely possible that somebody has enough grievance, given the situation in Ukraine, to want to kill him."
Western Preparation Urged for Post-Putin Chaos
Kennedy issued a clear warning that Putin's days are numbered and called for immediate Western preparation for the potential chaos following his death. "If we take a medium to long term view, the situation in Russia is ripe for change," he stated.
"Whether it ends up being a change led by those around him, or whether it's a democratic uprising or military coup, it's necessary to plan for all of these contingencies." The expert stressed the importance of comprehensive preparation for multiple possible outcomes as Russia approaches this critical juncture in its leadership.
The detailed analysis forms part of the Daily Mail's Future Headlines series, providing unprecedented insight into the potential endings awaiting one of the world's most enduring and controversial political figures.
