A significant new survey has exposed a profound crisis of confidence in European attitudes towards the United States, should Donald Trump return to the White House. The poll, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), found that a clear majority of citizens across 13 European nations now view the former US president as an "enemy of Europe".
Overwhelming Distrust and Fear of Abandonment
The data, gathered in late 2024, presents a stark picture of transatlantic anxiety. When asked to describe Trump in the context of European interests, 62% of respondents labelled him an "enemy", while a mere 10% considered him a "friend". This sentiment is strongest in Germany, Spain, and Portugal, but holds true across the continent.
This distrust is directly linked to fears over European security and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The poll indicates that 65% of Europeans believe the US under Trump would not honour its Article 5 defence commitments under NATO. Furthermore, a majority in 10 of the 13 countries surveyed think it is likely Trump would push Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the conflict.
A Continent Divided on Its Own Defence
The prospect of a diminished American security guarantee is forcing Europeans to confront difficult questions about their own capabilities and unity. The poll reveals a sharp divide on how to respond. While 41% of respondents advocate for increasing Europe's military self-reliance, an almost equal number (37%) favour trying to maintain the alliance with the US at all costs, even if it means aligning with Trump's policies.
This split highlights a fundamental strategic dilemma. "Europeans have realised that the United States might no longer be a reliable security partner," noted Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at ECFR. The findings suggest that a second Trump term could trigger a major, and potentially chaotic, re-evaluation of Europe's defence architecture, with no clear consensus on the path forward.
Political Implications and the Shadow of the US Election
The polling data carries immediate weight for European policymakers as they watch the 2024 US presidential race. The widespread perception of Trump as an adversary suggests that his re-election would severely strain diplomatic relations, making cooperation on a range of global issues exceedingly difficult.
The study also points to a potential shift in public opinion within Europe regarding the Ukraine war itself. The fear of American abandonment is so potent that it is beginning to influence views on the conflict's resolution, with significant portions of the public in countries like Italy, Greece, and Hungary showing openness to a negotiated settlement that might involve Ukrainian concessions.
In conclusion, the ECFR poll serves as a powerful alarm bell for the transatlantic alliance. It documents a European public that is not merely sceptical but actively hostile to a potential Trump presidency, fearing it would leave the continent isolated and vulnerable. The results underscore that the outcome of the American election in November will resonate far beyond US borders, potentially forcing Europe into its most consequential strategic pivot since the end of the Cold War.
