High-level diplomatic efforts have yet to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, despite a significant new international declaration of support. The core reality remains unchanged: there is no active ceasefire, future military aid is uncertain, and Moscow shows no political will to end the conflict.
The Paris Summit and a Vague Outcome
On 6 January 2026, leaders from 35 countries, dubbed a "coalition of the willing," convened at the Élysée Palace in Paris. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were among the signatories of the resulting Paris Declaration.
The primary goal was to advance security guarantees for a potential future ceasefire. The participation of the United States alongside European and other global partners was a notable development. However, the actual outcome of the talks was deliberately vague, producing a document best described as a declaration of intent rather than a concrete plan.
Key Promises and Unanswered Questions
The declaration outlined several commitments from the coalition. These included support for a US-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism, backing for the armed forces of Ukraine, and the creation of a European-led multinational force for the country. Signatories also pledged long-term defence cooperation and support for Ukraine should Russia breach any future ceasefire agreement.
Within this framework, the UK and France reiterated their willingness to station troops in Ukraine after a ceasefire is established, acting as a military backstop. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signalled a potential shift, mentioning for the first time the possible involvement of German troops in securing a ceasefire. However, he added major caveats: any German deployment would be limited to NATO countries bordering Ukraine and would require parliamentary approval.
Critical questions remain unanswered: what precisely would constitute a ceasefire violation, and what specific response would it trigger? The connection between European troops, a rebuilt Ukrainian army, and continued US involvement is seen as vital, yet the transactional approach of the Trump administration casts doubt on Washington's durable commitment.
Russian Intransigence Undermines Diplomacy
The fundamental obstacle to peace was starkly evident during the Paris talks. Russia continued and even intensified its attacks on Ukraine, specifically targeting vital energy infrastructure during the winter to increase pressure on civilians. Only Ukraine has shown a consistent willingness to compromise.
Analysts argue that President Putin believes time is on his side, a perception bolstered by his direct communications with former President Trump. The term "coalition of the willing," reminiscent of the Iraq war, underscores a shift towards ad-hoc state alliances outside formal international institutions. The outcome of the Ukraine war will decisively shape this new, uncertain geopolitical path.
In conclusion, while diplomatic activity is high and international support for ending the war is strong, a genuine peace process cannot begin without Russia's engagement. The Paris Declaration, though symbolically important, cannot mask the persistent reality that an end to the conflict is not in sight.
