North Korea’s recent missile test from a naval destroyer, described by Kim Jong-un as evidence of “satisfactory progress” in arming ships with nuclear weapons, is seen as a signal that Pyongyang views nuclear deterrence as essential for regime survival. The test coincided with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, a country Donald Trump had accused of being close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Analysts believe the widening conflict in the Middle East has reinforced North Korea’s commitment to its nuclear programme. “Kim must have thought Iran was attacked like that because it didn’t have nuclear weapons,” said Song Seong-jong, a former South Korean defence ministry official. The North’s nuclear arsenal, estimated at about 50 warheads with material for up to 40 more, has grown despite UN sanctions and diplomatic efforts.
North Korea’s foreign ministry condemned the strikes on Iran as an “illegal act of aggression” but avoided directly criticising Trump, leaving the door open for potential talks. Kim has indicated that if the US respects North Korea’s status as a nuclear state, there is “no reason why we cannot get along well with the US.”
However, experts are divided on whether the Iran war creates an opportunity for dialogue or pushes North Korea further into isolation. Sydney Seiler, a former US envoy, argued that Trump’s willingness to use military force makes Kim “less likely to hastily seek talks.” Others, like Cho Han-bum of the Korea Institute for National Unification, believe Kim’s desire for long-term security and his personal rapport with Trump could draw him back to negotiations, especially if the US offers security guarantees.
